The archive · process meets outcome

Draft History

Draft archive9 drafts graded2016–2025 · Snake

1,824Picks

Last year Last 3 years All time

A+

joshua

2017 · 16 graded picks

#1 of 10

drafters

Hit rate

31%

beat the slot

Smashes

25%

top 15% picks

Busts

bottom 20%

Draft surplus

+126

useful pts

Per pick

+7.9

Best pick

+90

DeAndre Hopkins

Diagnosis

joshua's drafting profile

Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.

How joshua gets better

The film room

The DeAndre Hopkins read

Taken at pick 26 in 2017, he returned +90.4 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.

RB is your money position

3 RB picks returned 1.89× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.

QB is your blind spot

2 QB picks returned 44% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.

Late-round sniper

Rounds 10+ returned +27 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.

Allen Robinson still hurts

Pick 46 in 2017 came in −28.9 under the slot.

Return on draft capital

Where you hit, where you miss

0.44×

2 picks · 0% beat slot

1.89×

3 picks · 67% beat slot

1.38×

7 picks · 29% beat slot

0.64×

2 picks · 0% beat slot

0.18×

1 picks · 0% beat slot

DEF

2.11×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

Early (R1–4)

+80

4 picks · 50% hit

Mid (R5–9)

+20

5 picks · 20% hit

Late (R10+)

+27

7 picks · 29% hit

Signature steals

The picks that won

DeAndre Hopkins

2017 · Rd 3 · pick 26 · 134.7 useful vs 44.3 expected

+90

Kareem Hunt

2017 · Rd 7 · pick 66 · 111.8 useful vs 23.2 expected

+89

Adam Thielen

2017 · Rd 11 · pick 106 · 70.9 useful vs 12.1 expected

+59

The ones that haunt

The picks that didn't

Allen Robinson

2017 · Rd 5 · pick 46 · 0.0 useful vs 28.9 expected

−29

Drew Brees

2017 · Rd 4 · pick 35 · 22.1 useful vs 39.3 expected

−17

Rob Kelley

2017 · Rd 9 · pick 86 · 0.0 useful vs 17.2 expected

−17

The room

Prior draft boards

Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.

1.01-47

Jonathan Taylor

jonah

1.02+46

Christian McCaffrey

dylan

1.03+51

Austin Ekeler

Aidan

1.04+94

Justin Jefferson

Lewis

1.05+23

Cooper Kupp

Coby

1.06-49

Ja'Marr Chase

evan

1.07+49

Derrick Henry

Tyler

1.08-25

Najee Harris

Ethan

1.09-33

D'Andre Swift

Max

1.10+2

Dalvin Cook

oren

1.11+16

Joe Mixon

Zach

1.12-10

Alvin Kamara

Spencer

2.01+104

Davante Adams

Spencer

2.02+64

Stefon Diggs

Zach

2.03+101

Travis Kelce

oren

2.04-30

CeeDee Lamb

Max

2.05+43

Saquon Barkley

Ethan

2.06-6

Leonard Fournette

Tyler

2.07-26

Mike Evans

evan

2.08-7

Aaron Jones Sr.

Coby

2.09-20

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Lewis

2.10+22

Nick Chubb

Aidan

2.11-42

Javonte Williams

dylan

2.12+101

Tyreek Hill

jonah

3.01+24

Mark Andrews

jonah

3.02+11

James Conner

dylan

3.03-16

Michael Pittman Jr.

Aidan

3.04-16

Ezekiel Elliott

Lewis

3.05-33

Kyle Pitts Sr.

Coby

3.06-44

Keenan Allen

evan

3.07+13

Tee Higgins

Tyler

3.08+72

A.J. Brown

Ethan

3.09-28

DJ Moore

Max

3.10-40

Elijah Mitchell

oren

3.11-25

Courtland Sutton

Zach

3.12-28

Allen Robinson

Spencer

4.01+34

George Kittle

Spencer

4.02-35

Travis Etienne Jr.

Zach

4.03-31

Diontae Johnson

oren

4.04-32

Chase Edmonds

Max

4.05-8

Josh Allen

Ethan

4.06+32

Mike Williams

Tyler

4.07-30

Cam Akers

evan

4.08+28

Jaylen Waddle

Coby

4.09-9

Darren Waller

Lewis

4.10+6

Terry McLaurin

Aidan

4.11+1

Gabe Davis

dylan

4.12+2

Breece Hall

jonah

5.01+28

Lamar Jackson

jonah

5.02+19

JuJu Smith-Schuster

dylan

5.03+15

Jerry Jeudy

Aidan

5.04-11

Justin Herbert

Lewis

5.05-18

AJ Dillon

Coby

5.06-6

David Montgomery

evan

5.07+69

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Tyler

5.08+20

Dalton Schultz

Ethan

5.09-1

Dameon Pierce

Max

5.10+31

DK Metcalf

oren

5.11-18

Brandin Cooks

Zach

5.12+85

Patrick Mahomes

Spencer

6.01+5

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Spencer

6.02+1

Kyler Murray

Zach

6.03+14

Chris Godwin Jr.

oren

6.04-14

Darnell Mooney

Max

6.05-6

Michael Thomas

Ethan

6.06-11

J.K. Dobbins

Tyler

6.07+18

Josh Jacobs

evan

6.08-12

Rashod Bateman

Coby

6.09+31

Rhamondre Stevenson

Lewis

6.10+12

Hollywood Brown

Aidan

6.11+90

Jalen Hurts

dylan

6.12-20

Elijah Moore

jonah

7.01-21

Hunter Renfrow

jonah

7.02+44

Amari Cooper

dylan

7.03-14

Russell Wilson

Aidan

7.04-2

Devin Singletary

Lewis

7.05-20

Rashaad Penny

Coby

7.06+36

T.J. Hockenson

evan

7.07+50

Joe Burrow

Tyler

7.08-19

Brandon Aiyuk

Ethan

7.09+11

Christian Kirk

Max

7.10-18

DeAndre Hopkins

oren

7.11+20

Tony Pollard

Zach

7.12+7

DeVonta Smith

Spencer

8.01-17

Robert Woods

Spencer

8.02-17

George Pickens

Zach

8.03-9

Tom Brady

oren

8.04+11

Adam Thielen

Max

8.05-4

Kareem Hunt

Ethan

8.06+16

Dallas Goedert

Tyler

8.07-12

Damien Harris

evan

8.08+26

Miles Sanders

Coby

8.09+8

Allen Lazard

Lewis

8.10-15

Dawson Knox

Aidan

8.11-8

Antonio Gibson

dylan

8.12-14

Melvin Gordon III

jonah

9.01-14

Drake London

jonah

9.02+4

Zach Ertz

dylan

9.03-13

Darrell Henderson Jr.

Aidan

9.04-14

Kadarius Toney

Lewis

9.05-9

Dak Prescott

Coby

9.06-14

Aaron Rodgers

evan

9.07-13

Cole Kmet

Tyler

9.08+3

Tyler Lockett

Ethan

9.09-3

Pat Freiermuth

Max

9.10+17

Cordarrelle Patterson

oren

9.11+8

Jakobi Meyers

Zach

9.12-12

Michael Carter

Spencer

10.01-12

Nyheim Miller-Hines

Spencer

10.02-12

Skyy Moore

Zach

10.03-12

Alexander Mattison

oren

10.04-11

Trey Lance

Max

10.05-11

James Cook III

Ethan

10.06-11

Nico Collins

Tyler

10.07-11

Sammy Watkins

evan

10.08+15

Chris Olave

Coby

10.09+33

Kenneth Walker III

Lewis

10.10-10

Kenny Gainwell

Aidan

10.11-10

Chase Claypool

dylan

10.12-10

David Njoku

jonah

11.01-10

Julio Jones

jonah

11.02-9

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

dylan

11.03-9

DeVante Parker

Aidan

11.04+3

Jamaal Williams

Lewis

11.05-9

Isaiah McKenzie

Coby

11.06-9

Treylon Burks

evan

11.07+2

Raheem Mostert

Tyler

11.08-9

Jahan Dotson

Ethan

11.09+38

Cowboys

Max

11.10-9

Michael Gallup

oren

11.11+9

Bills

Zach

11.12-9

Mark Ingram II

Spencer

12.01-9

DJ Chark

Spencer

12.02-9

Albert Okwuegbunam Jr.

Zach

12.03-8

Russell Gage Jr.

oren

12.04-9

J.D. McKissic

Max

12.05-8

Jalen Tolbert

Ethan

12.06-8

Tyler Allgeier

Tyler

12.07-2

Tyler Boyd

evan

12.080

James Robinson

Coby

12.09-9

Irv Smith Jr.

Lewis

12.10-9

Kenny Golladay

Aidan

12.11+22

Justin Tucker

dylan

12.12-8

Khalil Herbert

jonah

13.01+10

Evan McPherson

jonah

13.02-8

Odell Beckham Jr.

dylan

13.03+2

Harrison Butker

Aidan

13.04-8

Zay Jones

Lewis

13.05-7

Romeo Doubs

Coby

13.06-1

Buccaneers

evan

13.07-8

D'Onta Foreman

Tyler

13.08+29

Daniel Carlson

Ethan

13.09-8

Jarvis Landry

Max

13.10+2

Joshua Palmer

oren

13.11-8

Brian Robinson Jr.

Zach

13.12+30

Garrett Wilson

Spencer

14.01+1

Chargers

Spencer

14.02+26

Tyler Bass

Zach

14.030

Colts

oren

14.04-8

Isiah Pacheco

Max

14.05-8

Robert Tonyan

Ethan

14.06-7

Wan'Dale Robinson

Tyler

14.07-7

Tyler Higbee

evan

14.08-7

Rondale Moore

Coby

14.09+53

49ers

Lewis

14.10-7

Marvin Jones Jr.

Aidan

14.11+2

Rams

dylan

14.12-7

Rachaad White

jonah

15.01+3

Broncos

jonah

15.02-6

Mecole Hardman Jr.

dylan

15.03-6

Sony Michel

Aidan

15.04-6

Matt Gay

Lewis

15.05-6

Zamir White

Coby

15.06-4

Wil Lutz

evan

15.07-3

Jason Sanders

Tyler

15.08-6

Darrel Williams

Ethan

15.09-6

Derek Carr

Max

15.10+6

Chris Boswell

oren

15.11-6

Christian Watson

Zach

15.12-6

Nick Folk

Spencer

16.01-5

Jameson Williams

Spencer

16.02-5

Randall Cobb

Zach

16.03+3

Jeff Wilson Jr.

oren

16.04-5

Robbie Gould

Max

16.05+3

Parris Campbell

Ethan

16.06-5

James Washington

Tyler

16.07-5

Matthew Stafford

evan

16.08-5

Hunter Henry

Coby

16.09-5

Robbie Chosen

Lewis

16.10-4

Patriots

Aidan

16.11-5

Jerick McKinnon

dylan

16.12+10

Kirk Cousins

jonah

Evidence

The year-end receipts

2017

Best drafters in the league

01joshua
A+
02Coby
A
03jonah
A-
04Max
B
05oren
B-
06Spencer
C+
07Lewis
C-
08evan
D+
09Ethan
D
10Aidan
F

2017

League superlatives

The Oracle

joshua

Best draft grade · A+ · +7.9/pick

The Sniper

Coby

Best single pick over slot · Todd Gurley +122.7

Bargain Hunter

oren

Most value from rounds 10+ · +78

Boom or Bust

joshua

Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 37

Steady Hand

Aidan

Most consistent picks · σ 14

Dead Money

oren

Worst first-round return · −82

Draft day → final standings

Does the draft decide anything?

r = +0.57

Draft day decides this league. Based on 102 team-seasons.

Season by season

Best draft vs the champion's draft

Season	Best draft	Finished	Champion's draft
2025	Aidan (A+)	3rd	Coby (draft #2 of 12)
2024	Lewis (A+)	5th	Ethan (draft #5 of 12)
2023	jonah (A+)	6th	Max (draft #10 of 12)
2022	Spencer (A+)	1st	Spencer (draft #1 of 12)
2021	Lewis (A+)	2nd	Tyler (draft #4 of 12)
2019	Spencer (A+)	1st	Spencer (draft #1 of 12)
2018	jonah (A+)	1st	jonah (draft #1 of 10)
2017	joshua (A+)	1st	joshua (draft #1 of 10)
2016	jonah (A+)	2nd	Lewis (draft #7 of 10)

Scouting archive

How this room drafts

Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).

Manager	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16
oren	RB	WR	RB	WR	TE	RB	QB	RB	WR	DEF	WR	QB	K	TE	WR	RB
Spencer	RB	RB	WR	WR	WR	QB	TE	TE	RB	RB	WR	K	WR	DEF	QB	WR
Max	WR	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	TE	DEF	QB	RB	K
Coby	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	WR	QB	TE	QB	RB	WR	RB	RB	DEF	K
Aidan	WR	RB	RB	RB	WR	TE	WR	QB	RB	WR	WR	WR	K	DEF	QB	WR
joshua	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	TE	RB	WR	RB	WR	WR	QB	DEF	TE	K	WR
evan	WR	RB	WR	TE	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	RB	DEF	QB	WR	K
Ethan	RB	WR	RB	QB	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	RB	WR	RB	DEF	RB	K	RB
jonah	RB	WR	RB	WR	RB	WR	QB	TE	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	DEF	K	QB
Lewis	RB	WR	QB	TE	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	RB	RB	WR	K	WR	DEF	TE

All drafts on record

League draft meta

Position	Avg first off the board	Median pick	Range
QB	pick 30 (≈ R3)	85	21–192
RB	pick 2 (≈ R1)	76	1–192
WR	pick 3 (≈ R1)	81	1–191
TE	pick 17 (≈ R2)	90	3–192
K	pick 125 (≈ R11)	156	96–192
DEF	pick 110 (≈ R10)	144	84–191