The archive · process meets outcome

Draft History

Draft archive9 drafts graded2016–2025 · Snake

1,824Picks

Last year Last 3 years All time

A+

joshua

2017 · 16 graded picks

#1 of 10

drafters

Hit rate

31%

beat the slot

Smashes

25%

top 15% picks

Busts

bottom 20%

Draft surplus

+126

useful pts

Per pick

+7.9

Best pick

+90

DeAndre Hopkins

Diagnosis

joshua's drafting profile

Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.

How joshua gets better

The film room

The DeAndre Hopkins read

Taken at pick 26 in 2017, he returned +90.4 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.

RB is your money position

3 RB picks returned 1.89× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.

QB is your blind spot

2 QB picks returned 44% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.

Late-round sniper

Rounds 10+ returned +27 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.

Allen Robinson still hurts

Pick 46 in 2017 came in −28.9 under the slot.

Return on draft capital

Where you hit, where you miss

0.44×

2 picks · 0% beat slot

1.89×

3 picks · 67% beat slot

1.38×

7 picks · 29% beat slot

0.64×

2 picks · 0% beat slot

0.18×

1 picks · 0% beat slot

DEF

2.11×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

Early (R1–4)

+80

4 picks · 50% hit

Mid (R5–9)

+20

5 picks · 20% hit

Late (R10+)

+27

7 picks · 29% hit

Signature steals

The picks that won

DeAndre Hopkins

2017 · Rd 3 · pick 26 · 134.7 useful vs 44.3 expected

+90

Kareem Hunt

2017 · Rd 7 · pick 66 · 111.8 useful vs 23.2 expected

+89

Adam Thielen

2017 · Rd 11 · pick 106 · 70.9 useful vs 12.1 expected

+59

The ones that haunt

The picks that didn't

Allen Robinson

2017 · Rd 5 · pick 46 · 0.0 useful vs 28.9 expected

−29

Drew Brees

2017 · Rd 4 · pick 35 · 22.1 useful vs 39.3 expected

−17

Rob Kelley

2017 · Rd 9 · pick 86 · 0.0 useful vs 17.2 expected

−17

The room

Prior draft boards

Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.

1.01+47

Ja'Marr Chase

Coby

1.02+28

Jahmyr Gibbs

Lewis

1.03+60

Bijan Robinson

Aidan

1.04-61

CeeDee Lamb

Spencer

1.05-35

Saquon Barkley

evan

1.06-43

Justin Jefferson

jonah

1.07-32

Malik Nabers

Max

1.08-47

Nico Collins

Ethan

1.09+103

Christian McCaffrey

Tyler

1.10+12

Amon-Ra St. Brown

dylan

1.11-15

Ashton Jeanty

oren

1.12-16

Derrick Henry

Zach

2.01+63

Puka Nacua

Zach

2.02+23

Drake London

oren

2.03+22

Chase Brown

dylan

2.04-41

Brian Thomas Jr.

Tyler

2.05-41

Bucky Irving

Ethan

2.06-10

Ladd McConkey

Max

2.07+100

Jonathan Taylor

jonah

2.08+14

Brock Bowers

evan

2.09+7

Josh Jacobs

Spencer

2.10+52

De'Von Achane

Aidan

2.11-16

A.J. Brown

Lewis

2.12+7

Kyren Williams

Coby

3.01+120

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Coby

3.02-34

Tyreek Hill

Lewis

3.03-7

Lamar Jackson

Aidan

3.04-42

Alvin Kamara

Spencer

3.05+57

Josh Allen

evan

3.06-24

Terry McLaurin

jonah

3.07+18

Tee Higgins

Max

3.08-16

Omarion Hampton

Ethan

3.09+52

James Cook III

Tyler

3.10+5

Trey McBride

dylan

3.11-3

Garrett Wilson

oren

3.12-38

Mike Evans

Zach

4.01-27

Jayden Daniels

Zach

4.02+37

Davante Adams

oren

4.03-29

Kenneth Walker III

dylan

4.04-8

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Tyler

4.05+19

Jalen Hurts

Ethan

4.06+8

George Kittle

Max

4.07-23

Xavier Worthy

jonah

4.08+79

George Pickens

evan

4.09+0

DK Metcalf

Spencer

4.10+1

DeVonta Smith

Aidan

4.11-28

Joe Burrow

Lewis

4.12-11

Courtland Sutton

Coby

5.01-28

TreVeyon Henderson

Coby

5.02+1

Breece Hall

Lewis

5.03+22

Zay Flowers

Aidan

5.04-7

Tetairoa McMillan

Spencer

5.05-20

Chuba Hubbard

evan

5.06-27

James Conner

jonah

5.07-6

David Montgomery

Max

5.08-27

Calvin Ridley

Ethan

5.09+7

DJ Moore

Tyler

5.10+15

RJ Harvey

dylan

5.11-24

Tony Pollard

oren

5.12-7

D'Andre Swift

Zach

6.01+18

Jaylen Waddle

Zach

6.02-12

Chris Olave

oren

6.03+15

Jameson Williams

dylan

6.04+40

Rashee Rice

Tyler

6.05-23

Travis Hunter

Ethan

6.06-23

Isiah Pacheco

Max

6.07+2

Sam LaPorta

jonah

6.08+25

Rome Odunze

evan

6.09+5

Stefon Diggs

Spencer

6.10+32

Emeka Egbuka

Aidan

6.11+21

Travis Kelce

Lewis

6.12-10

Ricky Pearsall

Coby

7.01-20

Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Coby

7.02-17

Matthew Golden

Lewis

7.03-20

Aaron Jones Sr.

Aidan

7.04-15

Mark Andrews

Spencer

7.05-20

Jerry Jeudy

evan

7.06-9

Jakobi Meyers

jonah

7.07+24

Tyler Warren

Max

7.08+32

Tucker Kraft

Ethan

7.09-8

Jordan Mason

Tyler

7.10-2

Bo Nix

dylan

7.11-18

Zach Charbonnet

oren

7.12-18

Evan Engram

Zach

8.01+30

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Zach

8.02-10

T.J. Hockenson

oren

8.03+31

Michael Pittman Jr.

dylan

8.04-17

David Njoku

Tyler

8.05-11

Jordan Addison

Ethan

8.06-16

Jauan Jennings

Max

8.07+49

Patrick Mahomes

jonah

8.08-16

Braelon Allen

evan

8.09-16

Cooper Kupp

Spencer

8.10-1

Khalil Shakir

Aidan

8.11-15

Kaleb Johnson

Lewis

8.12+33

Dak Prescott

Coby

9.01-2

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Coby

9.02-4

Josh Downs

Lewis

9.03+4

Keenan Allen

Aidan

9.04-14

Nick Chubb

Spencer

9.05+49

Brandon Aubrey

evan

9.06-4

Jaylen Warren

jonah

9.07-9

J.K. Dobbins

Max

9.08+1

Dalton Kincaid

Ethan

9.09-13

Chris Godwin Jr.

Tyler

9.10+4

Travis Etienne Jr.

dylan

9.11-12

Austin Ekeler

oren

9.12-12

Joe Mixon

Zach

10.01-12

Tank Bigsby

Zach

10.02+9

Baker Mayfield

oren

10.03-12

Jayden Reed

dylan

10.04+2

Keon Coleman

Tyler

10.05-11

Luther Burden III

Ethan

10.06+1

Justin Fields

Max

10.07-11

Brian Robinson Jr.

jonah

10.080

Rashid Shaheed

evan

10.09-11

Rhamondre Stevenson

Spencer

10.10+33

Javonte Williams

Aidan

10.11-10

Darnell Mooney

Lewis

10.12+50

Jake Ferguson

Coby

11.01-10

Ollie Gordon II

Coby

11.02-9

Brandon Aiyuk

Lewis

11.03+29

Hunter Henry

Aidan

11.04-9

Najee Harris

Spencer

11.05-2

Eagles

evan

11.06-9

Dylan Sampson

jonah

11.07-9

Bhayshul Tuten

Max

11.08+20

Cam Skattebo

Ethan

11.09-9

Rashod Bateman

Tyler

11.10-9

Tyler Allgeier

dylan

11.11-7

Jayden Higgins

oren

11.12+11

Drake Maye

Zach

12.01-8

Hollywood Brown

Zach

12.02+27

Broncos

oren

12.03-8

Christian Kirk

dylan

12.04-9

Kyler Murray

Tyler

12.05-8

Ray Davis

Ethan

12.06-8

Jerome Ford

Max

12.07-8

Wan'Dale Robinson

jonah

12.08+19

Quinshon Judkins

evan

12.09-9

Kyle Pitts Sr.

Spencer

12.10-9

Colston Loveland

Aidan

12.11-9

Jaydon Blue

Lewis

12.12-8

DeMario Douglas

Coby

13.01-8

Trey Benson

Coby

13.02+2

Dallas Goedert

Lewis

13.03-8

Amari Cooper

Aidan

13.04-8

C.J. Stroud

Spencer

13.05-8

Brock Purdy

evan

13.06+37

Cameron Dicker

jonah

13.07-1

Kareem Hunt

Max

13.08-9

Tre' Harris

Ethan

13.09-8

Malik Washington

Tyler

13.100

Ravens

dylan

13.11+25

Chris Boswell

oren

13.12-8

Kyle Williams

Zach

14.01-8

Marvin Mims Jr.

Zach

14.02-6

Woody Marks

oren

14.03+26

Ka'imi Fairbairn

dylan

14.04-8

Isaac Guerendo

Tyler

14.05+0

Romeo Doubs

Ethan

14.06+3

Kyle Monangai

Max

14.07+24

Steelers

jonah

14.08-7

Rachaad White

evan

14.09-7

Dont'e Thornton Jr.

Spencer

14.10+1

Jake Bates

Aidan

14.11-1

Tyler Loop

Lewis

14.12-7

Caleb Williams

Coby

15.01-7

Rico Dowdle

Coby

15.02+4

Jared Goff

Lewis

15.03-6

DeAndre Hopkins

Aidan

15.04-6

Harrison Butker

Spencer

15.05-3

Zach Ertz

evan

15.06-6

Jonnu Smith

jonah

15.07-6

Wil Lutz

Max

15.08-1

Cam Little

Ethan

15.09+38

Texans

Tyler

15.10-1

Cedric Tillman

dylan

15.11-2

Tyjae Spears

oren

15.12-6

Evan McPherson

Zach

16.01-5

Vikings

Zach

16.02-5

Brenton Strange

oren

16.03-5

Dyami Brown

dylan

16.04-5

Andrei Iosivas

Tyler

16.05-5

Joshua Palmer

Ethan

16.06-2

Packers

Max

16.07-5

J.J. McCarthy

jonah

16.08-5

Roschon Johnson

evan

16.09-5

Bills

Spencer

16.10-5

Tyler Lockett

Aidan

16.11-2

49ers

Lewis

16.12-4

Jason Sanders

Coby

Evidence

The year-end receipts

2017

Best drafters in the league

01joshua
A+
02Coby
A
03jonah
A-
04Max
B
05oren
B-
06Spencer
C+
07Lewis
C-
08evan
D+
09Ethan
D
10Aidan
F

2017

League superlatives

The Oracle

joshua

Best draft grade · A+ · +7.9/pick

The Sniper

Coby

Best single pick over slot · Todd Gurley +122.7

Bargain Hunter

oren

Most value from rounds 10+ · +78

Boom or Bust

joshua

Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 37

Steady Hand

Aidan

Most consistent picks · σ 14

Dead Money

oren

Worst first-round return · −82

Draft day → final standings

Does the draft decide anything?

r = +0.57

Draft day decides this league. Based on 102 team-seasons.

Season by season

Best draft vs the champion's draft

Season	Best draft	Finished	Champion's draft
2025	Aidan (A+)	3rd	Coby (draft #2 of 12)
2024	Lewis (A+)	5th	Ethan (draft #5 of 12)
2023	jonah (A+)	6th	Max (draft #10 of 12)
2022	Spencer (A+)	1st	Spencer (draft #1 of 12)
2021	Lewis (A+)	2nd	Tyler (draft #4 of 12)
2019	Spencer (A+)	1st	Spencer (draft #1 of 12)
2018	jonah (A+)	1st	jonah (draft #1 of 10)
2017	joshua (A+)	1st	joshua (draft #1 of 10)
2016	jonah (A+)	2nd	Lewis (draft #7 of 10)

Scouting archive

How this room drafts

Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).

Manager	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16
oren	RB	WR	RB	WR	TE	RB	QB	RB	WR	DEF	WR	QB	K	TE	WR	RB
Spencer	RB	RB	WR	WR	WR	QB	TE	TE	RB	RB	WR	K	WR	DEF	QB	WR
Max	WR	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	TE	DEF	QB	RB	K
Coby	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	WR	QB	TE	QB	RB	WR	RB	RB	DEF	K
Aidan	WR	RB	RB	RB	WR	TE	WR	QB	RB	WR	WR	WR	K	DEF	QB	WR
joshua	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	TE	RB	WR	RB	WR	WR	QB	DEF	TE	K	WR
evan	WR	RB	WR	TE	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	RB	DEF	QB	WR	K
Ethan	RB	WR	RB	QB	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	RB	WR	RB	DEF	RB	K	RB
jonah	RB	WR	RB	WR	RB	WR	QB	TE	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	DEF	K	QB
Lewis	RB	WR	QB	TE	RB	WR	WR	RB	WR	RB	RB	WR	K	WR	DEF	TE

All drafts on record

League draft meta

Position	Avg first off the board	Median pick	Range
QB	pick 30 (≈ R3)	85	21–192
RB	pick 2 (≈ R1)	76	1–192
WR	pick 3 (≈ R1)	81	1–191
TE	pick 17 (≈ R2)	90	3–192
K	pick 125 (≈ R11)	156	96–192
DEF	pick 110 (≈ R10)	144	84–191