The archive · process meets outcome
Draft History
Draft archive9 drafts graded2016–2025 · Snake
1,824Picks
A+
Lewis
2021 · 16 graded picks
#1 of 12
drafters
Hit rate
56%
beat the slot
Smashes
31%
top 15% picks
Busts
13%
bottom 20%
Draft surplus
+336
useful pts
Per pick
+21.0
Best pick
+112
Deebo Samuel Sr.
01
Diagnosis
Lewis's drafting profile
Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.
How Lewis gets better
The film room
The Deebo Samuel Sr. read
Taken at pick 82 in 2021, he returned +111.9 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.
WR is your money position
5 WR picks returned 2.31× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.
DEF is your blind spot
2 DEF picks returned 45% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.
Late-round sniper
Rounds 10+ returned +42 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.
DeAndre Hopkins still hurts
Pick 15 in 2021 came in −19.3 under the slot.
Return on draft capital
Where you hit, where you miss
QB
2.29×
2 picks · 50% beat slot
RB
1.90×
3 picks · 100% beat slot
WR
2.31×
5 picks · 60% beat slot
TE
1.26×
3 picks · 33% beat slot
K
2.10×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
DEF
0.45×
2 picks · 0% beat slot
Early (R1–4)
+101
4 picks · 75% hit
Mid (R5–9)
+193
5 picks · 80% hit
Late (R10+)
+42
7 picks · 29% hit
Signature steals
The picks that won
WR+112
Deebo Samuel Sr.
2021 · Rd 7 · pick 82 · 130.4 useful vs 18.5 expected
QB+70
Josh Allen
2021 · Rd 3 · pick 34 · 110.0 useful vs 39.7 expected
WR+68
Jaylen Waddle
2021 · Rd 9 · pick 106 · 80.4 useful vs 12.1 expected
The ones that haunt
The picks that didn't
WR−19
DeAndre Hopkins
2021 · Rd 2 · pick 15 · 34.2 useful vs 53.5 expected
WR−17
Kenny Golladay
2021 · Rd 8 · pick 87 · 0.0 useful vs 16.9 expected
TE−9
Irv Smith Jr.
2021 · Rd 11 · pick 130 · 0.0 useful vs 8.8 expected
02
The room
Prior draft boards
Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.
1.01+47
Ja'Marr Chase
Coby
1.02+28
Jahmyr Gibbs
Lewis
1.03+60
Bijan Robinson
Aidan
1.04-61
CeeDee Lamb
Spencer
1.05-35
Saquon Barkley
evan
1.06-43
Justin Jefferson
jonah
1.07-32
Malik Nabers
Max
1.08-47
Nico Collins
Ethan
1.09+103
Christian McCaffrey
Tyler
1.10+12
Amon-Ra St. Brown
dylan
1.11-15
Ashton Jeanty
oren
1.12-16
Derrick Henry
Zach
2.01+63
Puka Nacua
Zach
2.02+23
Drake London
oren
2.03+22
Chase Brown
dylan
2.04-41
Brian Thomas Jr.
Tyler
2.05-41
Bucky Irving
Ethan
2.06-10
Ladd McConkey
Max
2.07+100
Jonathan Taylor
jonah
2.08+14
Brock Bowers
evan
2.09+7
Josh Jacobs
Spencer
2.10+52
De'Von Achane
Aidan
2.11-16
A.J. Brown
Lewis
2.12+7
Kyren Williams
Coby
3.01+120
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Coby
3.02-34
Tyreek Hill
Lewis
3.03-7
Lamar Jackson
Aidan
3.04-42
Alvin Kamara
Spencer
3.05+57
Josh Allen
evan
3.06-24
Terry McLaurin
jonah
3.07+18
Tee Higgins
Max
3.08-16
Omarion Hampton
Ethan
3.09+52
James Cook III
Tyler
3.10+5
Trey McBride
dylan
3.11-3
Garrett Wilson
oren
3.12-38
Mike Evans
Zach
4.01-27
Jayden Daniels
Zach
4.02+37
Davante Adams
oren
4.03-29
Kenneth Walker III
dylan
4.04-8
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Tyler
4.05+19
Jalen Hurts
Ethan
4.06+8
George Kittle
Max
4.07-23
Xavier Worthy
jonah
4.08+79
George Pickens
evan
4.09+0
DK Metcalf
Spencer
4.10+1
DeVonta Smith
Aidan
4.11-28
Joe Burrow
Lewis
4.12-11
Courtland Sutton
Coby
5.01-28
TreVeyon Henderson
Coby
5.02+1
Breece Hall
Lewis
5.03+22
Zay Flowers
Aidan
5.04-7
Tetairoa McMillan
Spencer
5.05-20
Chuba Hubbard
evan
5.06-27
James Conner
jonah
5.07-6
David Montgomery
Max
5.08-27
Calvin Ridley
Ethan
5.09+7
DJ Moore
Tyler
5.10+15
RJ Harvey
dylan
5.11-24
Tony Pollard
oren
5.12-7
D'Andre Swift
Zach
6.01+18
Jaylen Waddle
Zach
6.02-12
Chris Olave
oren
6.03+15
Jameson Williams
dylan
6.04+40
Rashee Rice
Tyler
6.05-23
Travis Hunter
Ethan
6.06-23
Isiah Pacheco
Max
6.07+2
Sam LaPorta
jonah
6.08+25
Rome Odunze
evan
6.09+5
Stefon Diggs
Spencer
6.10+32
Emeka Egbuka
Aidan
6.11+21
Travis Kelce
Lewis
6.12-10
Ricky Pearsall
Coby
7.01-20
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
Coby
7.02-17
Matthew Golden
Lewis
7.03-20
Aaron Jones Sr.
Aidan
7.04-15
Mark Andrews
Spencer
7.05-20
Jerry Jeudy
evan
7.06-9
Jakobi Meyers
jonah
7.07+24
Tyler Warren
Max
7.08+32
Tucker Kraft
Ethan
7.09-8
Jordan Mason
Tyler
7.10-2
Bo Nix
dylan
7.11-18
Zach Charbonnet
oren
7.12-18
Evan Engram
Zach
8.01+30
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Zach
8.02-10
T.J. Hockenson
oren
8.03+31
Michael Pittman Jr.
dylan
8.04-17
David Njoku
Tyler
8.05-11
Jordan Addison
Ethan
8.06-16
Jauan Jennings
Max
8.07+49
Patrick Mahomes
jonah
8.08-16
Braelon Allen
evan
8.09-16
Cooper Kupp
Spencer
8.10-1
Khalil Shakir
Aidan
8.11-15
Kaleb Johnson
Lewis
8.12+33
Dak Prescott
Coby
9.01-2
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Coby
9.02-4
Josh Downs
Lewis
9.03+4
Keenan Allen
Aidan
9.04-14
Nick Chubb
Spencer
9.05+49
Brandon Aubrey
evan
9.06-4
Jaylen Warren
jonah
9.07-9
J.K. Dobbins
Max
9.08+1
Dalton Kincaid
Ethan
9.09-13
Chris Godwin Jr.
Tyler
9.10+4
Travis Etienne Jr.
dylan
9.11-12
Austin Ekeler
oren
9.12-12
Joe Mixon
Zach
10.01-12
Tank Bigsby
Zach
10.02+9
Baker Mayfield
oren
10.03-12
Jayden Reed
dylan
10.04+2
Keon Coleman
Tyler
10.05-11
Luther Burden III
Ethan
10.06+1
Justin Fields
Max
10.07-11
Brian Robinson Jr.
jonah
10.080
Rashid Shaheed
evan
10.09-11
Rhamondre Stevenson
Spencer
10.10+33
Javonte Williams
Aidan
10.11-10
Darnell Mooney
Lewis
10.12+50
Jake Ferguson
Coby
11.01-10
Ollie Gordon II
Coby
11.02-9
Brandon Aiyuk
Lewis
11.03+29
Hunter Henry
Aidan
11.04-9
Najee Harris
Spencer
11.05-2
Eagles
evan
11.06-9
Dylan Sampson
jonah
11.07-9
Bhayshul Tuten
Max
11.08+20
Cam Skattebo
Ethan
11.09-9
Rashod Bateman
Tyler
11.10-9
Tyler Allgeier
dylan
11.11-7
Jayden Higgins
oren
11.12+11
Drake Maye
Zach
12.01-8
Hollywood Brown
Zach
12.02+27
Broncos
oren
12.03-8
Christian Kirk
dylan
12.04-9
Kyler Murray
Tyler
12.05-8
Ray Davis
Ethan
12.06-8
Jerome Ford
Max
12.07-8
Wan'Dale Robinson
jonah
12.08+19
Quinshon Judkins
evan
12.09-9
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Spencer
12.10-9
Colston Loveland
Aidan
12.11-9
Jaydon Blue
Lewis
12.12-8
DeMario Douglas
Coby
13.01-8
Trey Benson
Coby
13.02+2
Dallas Goedert
Lewis
13.03-8
Amari Cooper
Aidan
13.04-8
C.J. Stroud
Spencer
13.05-8
Brock Purdy
evan
13.06+37
Cameron Dicker
jonah
13.07-1
Kareem Hunt
Max
13.08-9
Tre' Harris
Ethan
13.09-8
Malik Washington
Tyler
13.100
Ravens
dylan
13.11+25
Chris Boswell
oren
13.12-8
Kyle Williams
Zach
14.01-8
Marvin Mims Jr.
Zach
14.02-6
Woody Marks
oren
14.03+26
Ka'imi Fairbairn
dylan
14.04-8
Isaac Guerendo
Tyler
14.05+0
Romeo Doubs
Ethan
14.06+3
Kyle Monangai
Max
14.07+24
Steelers
jonah
14.08-7
Rachaad White
evan
14.09-7
Dont'e Thornton Jr.
Spencer
14.10+1
Jake Bates
Aidan
14.11-1
Tyler Loop
Lewis
14.12-7
Caleb Williams
Coby
15.01-7
Rico Dowdle
Coby
15.02+4
Jared Goff
Lewis
15.03-6
DeAndre Hopkins
Aidan
15.04-6
Harrison Butker
Spencer
15.05-3
Zach Ertz
evan
15.06-6
Jonnu Smith
jonah
15.07-6
Wil Lutz
Max
15.08-1
Cam Little
Ethan
15.09+38
Texans
Tyler
15.10-1
Cedric Tillman
dylan
15.11-2
Tyjae Spears
oren
15.12-6
Evan McPherson
Zach
16.01-5
Vikings
Zach
16.02-5
Brenton Strange
oren
16.03-5
Dyami Brown
dylan
16.04-5
Andrei Iosivas
Tyler
16.05-5
Joshua Palmer
Ethan
16.06-2
Packers
Max
16.07-5
J.J. McCarthy
jonah
16.08-5
Roschon Johnson
evan
16.09-5
Bills
Spencer
16.10-5
Tyler Lockett
Aidan
16.11-2
49ers
Lewis
16.12-4
Jason Sanders
Coby
03
Evidence
The year-end receipts
2021
Best drafters in the league
- 01LewisA+
- 02jonahA
- 03AidanA-
- 04TylerB+
- 05SpencerB
- 06dylanB-
- 07CobyC+
- 08ZachC
- 09orenC-
- 10evanD+
- 11EthanD
- 12MaxF
2021
League superlatives
The Oracle
Lewis
Best draft grade · A+ · +21.0/pick
The Sniper
Aidan
Best single pick over slot · Cooper Kupp +164.6
Bargain Hunter
dylan
Most value from rounds 10+ · +58
Boom or Bust
Aidan
Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 44
Steady Hand
Ethan
Most consistent picks · σ 12
Dead Money
Zach
Worst first-round return · −53
Draft day → final standings
Does the draft decide anything?
r = +0.57
Draft day decides this league. Based on 102 team-seasons.
Season by season
Best draft vs the champion's draft
| Season | Best draft | Finished | Champion's draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Aidan (A+) | 3rd | Coby (draft #2 of 12) |
| 2024 | Lewis (A+) | 5th | Ethan (draft #5 of 12) |
| 2023 | jonah (A+) | 6th | Max (draft #10 of 12) |
| 2022 | Spencer (A+) | 1st | Spencer (draft #1 of 12) |
| 2021 | Lewis (A+) | 2nd | Tyler (draft #4 of 12) |
| 2019 | Spencer (A+) | 1st | Spencer (draft #1 of 12) |
| 2018 | jonah (A+) | 1st | jonah (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2017 | joshua (A+) | 1st | joshua (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2016 | jonah (A+) | 2nd | Lewis (draft #7 of 10) |
04
Scouting archive
How this room drafts
Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).
| Manager | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 | R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach | RB | WR | RB | WR | RB | QB | WR | WR | TE | WR | RB | WR | K | RB | TE | QB |
| Spencer | RB | TE | WR | RB | RB | WR | QB | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | TE | DEF | K | RB |
| dylan | RB | RB | WR | WR | RB | TE | QB | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | DEF | RB | K | RB |
| Ethan | RB | WR | QB | RB | TE | WR | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | TE | RB | WR | WR | DEF |
| Aidan | RB | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | TE | QB | WR | RB | RB | TE | K | DEF | WR | WR |
| oren | RB | WR | RB | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | WR | DEF | TE | RB | WR | RB | QB | K |
| Coby | WR | WR | WR | RB | RB | QB | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | TE | WR | RB | K | DEF |
| Tyler | TE | RB | TE | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | WR | DEF | RB | K | WR | WR | RB | WR |
| Max | WR | WR | RB | RB | TE | WR | WR | WR | QB | DEF | QB | RB | RB | WR | K | WR |
| Lewis | RB | WR | QB | WR | TE | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | TE | DEF | QB | K | DEF | TE |
| jonah | RB | RB | WR | WR | RB | WR | QB | TE | RB | RB | WR | DEF | WR | K | TE | QB |
| evan | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | TE | QB | WR | WR | RB | RB | DEF | K | QB | TE |
All drafts on record
League draft meta
| Position | Avg first off the board | Median pick | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | pick 30 (≈ R3) | 85 | 21–192 |
| RB | pick 2 (≈ R1) | 76 | 1–192 |
| WR | pick 3 (≈ R1) | 81 | 1–191 |
| TE | pick 17 (≈ R2) | 90 | 3–192 |
| K | pick 125 (≈ R11) | 156 | 96–192 |
| DEF | pick 110 (≈ R10) | 144 | 84–191 |