The archive · process meets outcome
Draft History
Draft archive9 drafts graded2016–2025 · Snake
1,824Picks
A+
Lewis
2021 · 16 graded picks
#1 of 12
drafters
Hit rate
56%
beat the slot
Smashes
31%
top 15% picks
Busts
13%
bottom 20%
Draft surplus
+336
useful pts
Per pick
+21.0
Best pick
+112
Deebo Samuel Sr.
01
Diagnosis
Lewis's drafting profile
Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.
How Lewis gets better
The film room
The Deebo Samuel Sr. read
Taken at pick 82 in 2021, he returned +111.9 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.
WR is your money position
5 WR picks returned 2.31× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.
DEF is your blind spot
2 DEF picks returned 45% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.
Late-round sniper
Rounds 10+ returned +42 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.
DeAndre Hopkins still hurts
Pick 15 in 2021 came in −19.3 under the slot.
Return on draft capital
Where you hit, where you miss
QB
2.29×
2 picks · 50% beat slot
RB
1.90×
3 picks · 100% beat slot
WR
2.31×
5 picks · 60% beat slot
TE
1.26×
3 picks · 33% beat slot
K
2.10×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
DEF
0.45×
2 picks · 0% beat slot
Early (R1–4)
+101
4 picks · 75% hit
Mid (R5–9)
+193
5 picks · 80% hit
Late (R10+)
+42
7 picks · 29% hit
Signature steals
The picks that won
WR+112
Deebo Samuel Sr.
2021 · Rd 7 · pick 82 · 130.4 useful vs 18.5 expected
QB+70
Josh Allen
2021 · Rd 3 · pick 34 · 110.0 useful vs 39.7 expected
WR+68
Jaylen Waddle
2021 · Rd 9 · pick 106 · 80.4 useful vs 12.1 expected
The ones that haunt
The picks that didn't
WR−19
DeAndre Hopkins
2021 · Rd 2 · pick 15 · 34.2 useful vs 53.5 expected
WR−17
Kenny Golladay
2021 · Rd 8 · pick 87 · 0.0 useful vs 16.9 expected
TE−9
Irv Smith Jr.
2021 · Rd 11 · pick 130 · 0.0 useful vs 8.8 expected
02
The room
Prior draft boards
Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.
1.01+50
Jahmyr Gibbs
Tyler
1.02+4
Bijan Robinson
dylan
1.03+19
Ja'Marr Chase
oren
1.04+6
Christian McCaffrey
Lewis
1.05-40
Puka Nacua
Ethan
1.06+11
Jonathan Taylor
Aidan
1.07+98
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
jonah
1.08+30
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Max
1.09+57
CeeDee Lamb
evan
1.10-23
Chase Brown
Coby
1.11+10
James Cook III
Zach
1.12-5
Justin Jefferson
Spencer
2.01-35
Saquon Barkley
Spencer
2.02+38
Kenneth Walker III
Zach
2.03-24
Omarion Hampton
Coby
2.04-31
De'Von Achane
evan
2.05-4
Derrick Henry
Max
2.06-28
A.J. Brown
jonah
2.07+4
Nico Collins
Aidan
2.08-2
DeVonta Smith
Ethan
2.09+1
Ashton Jeanty
Lewis
2.10+27
Brock Bowers
oren
2.11-2
George Pickens
dylan
2.12+24
Chris Olave
Tyler
3.01-9
Malik Nabers
Tyler
3.02+14
Drake London
dylan
3.03-26
Rashee Rice
oren
3.04+34
Zay Flowers
Lewis
3.05-19
Kyren Williams
Ethan
3.06+35
Trey McBride
Aidan
3.07-15
Jeremiyah Love
jonah
3.08-23
Javonte Williams
Max
3.09+33
Josh Allen
evan
3.10-5
Jaylen Waddle
Coby
3.11+48
Tee Higgins
Zach
3.12-22
Travis Etienne Jr.
Spencer
4.01-11
Ladd McConkey
Spencer
4.02+20
Garrett Wilson
Zach
4.03-11
Emeka Egbuka
Coby
4.04-3
DJ Moore
evan
4.05-18
D'Andre Swift
Max
4.06-10
Breece Hall
jonah
4.07+27
Tetairoa McMillan
Aidan
4.08+1
Colston Loveland
Ethan
4.09+17
Luther Burden III
Lewis
4.10-16
Tyler Warren
oren
4.11-16
Jadarian Price
dylan
4.12-16
Cam Skattebo
Tyler
5.01+24
Bucky Irving
Tyler
5.02-16
Terry McLaurin
dylan
5.03-10
Rome Odunze
oren
5.04+22
Davante Adams
Lewis
5.05+23
Bhayshul Tuten
Ethan
5.06+13
Jameson Williams
Aidan
5.07+22
Parker Washington
jonah
5.08-1
David Montgomery
Max
5.09+12
Mike Evans
evan
5.10-5
Rhamondre Stevenson
Coby
5.11+49
Christian Watson
Zach
5.12-3
Quinshon Judkins
Spencer
6.01-14
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Spencer
6.02-8
Lamar Jackson
Zach
6.03+1
Tucker Kraft
Coby
6.04+26
Jaylen Warren
evan
6.05-13
Joe Burrow
Max
6.06+3
Drake Maye
jonah
6.07-13
TreVeyon Henderson
Aidan
6.08+7
Caleb Williams
Ethan
6.09-12
Carnell Tate
Lewis
6.10-12
MarShawn Lloyd
oren
6.11-12
Chris Godwin Jr.
dylan
6.12-12
DK Metcalf
Tyler
7.01+14
Harold Fannin Jr.
Tyler
7.02-12
Jonathon Brooks
dylan
7.03-12
Quentin Johnston
oren
7.04-6
Jalen Hurts
Lewis
7.05+23
Michael Wilson
Ethan
7.06+4
Tony Pollard
Aidan
7.07-11
Alec Pierce
jonah
7.08-11
Brian Thomas Jr.
Max
7.09-7
Kyle Pitts Sr.
evan
7.10-10
Josh Downs
Coby
7.11+26
George Kittle
Zach
7.12-10
Justin Herbert
Spencer
8.01-10
Courtland Sutton
Spencer
8.02-10
Jordan Mason
Zach
8.03-7
Jayden Daniels
Coby
8.04+11
Sam LaPorta
evan
8.05-9
Matthew Golden
Max
8.06+36
Chuba Hubbard
jonah
8.07+3
Stefon Diggs
Aidan
8.08-9
Michael Pittman Jr.
Ethan
8.09-9
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Lewis
8.10-9
De'Zhaun Stribling
oren
8.11-8
Jayden Reed
dylan
8.12-5
Wan'Dale Robinson
Tyler
9.01+5
Josh Jacobs
Tyler
9.02-8
Blake Corum
dylan
9.03-8
KC Concepcion Jr.
oren
9.04+15
Dalton Kincaid
Lewis
9.05-8
Kenny Gainwell
Ethan
9.06-4
J.K. Dobbins
Aidan
9.07+2
Makai Lemon
jonah
9.08-7
RJ Harvey
Max
9.09-1
Rachaad White
evan
9.10-7
Rico Dowdle
Coby
9.11-5
Jakobi Meyers
Zach
9.12+45
Isaiah Likely
Spencer
10.01+7
Romeo Doubs
Spencer
10.02+8
Dallas Goedert
Zach
10.03-7
Jordan Addison
Coby
10.04+5
Kyle Monangai
evan
10.05-6
Jordyn Tyson
Max
10.06+8
Travis Kelce
jonah
10.07+12
Dak Prescott
Aidan
10.08-3
Xavier Worthy
Ethan
10.09-6
Mark Andrews
Lewis
10.10-6
Mike Washington Jr.
oren
10.11+10
Trevor Lawrence
dylan
10.12+27
Jalen Coker
Tyler
11.01-6
Woody Marks
Tyler
11.02+3
Rams
dylan
11.03-5
Zach Charbonnet
oren
11.04-5
Rashid Shaheed
Lewis
11.05-5
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Ethan
11.06-2
Khalil Shakir
Aidan
11.07-5
Tyler Allgeier
jonah
11.08-5
Keaton Mitchell
Max
11.09-5
Jaxson Dart
evan
11.10-5
Tyjae Spears
Coby
11.11+9
Jason Myers
Zach
11.12-5
Jake Ferguson
Spencer
12.01-5
Ja'Kobi Lane
Spencer
12.02+2
Texans
Zach
12.03-5
Juwan Johnson
Coby
12.04+19
Brandon Aubrey
evan
12.05+9
Patrick Mahomes
Max
12.06+10
Broncos
jonah
12.07+2
Aaron Jones Sr.
Aidan
12.08-5
Brian Robinson Jr.
Ethan
12.09+6
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Lewis
12.10+19
Seahawks
oren
12.11-5
Denzel Boston
dylan
12.12+16
Ka'imi Fairbairn
Tyler
13.01-5
Brenton Strange
Tyler
13.02-5
Terrance Ferguson
dylan
13.03-4
Cameron Dicker
oren
13.04+1
Keenan Allen
Lewis
13.05-4
Dontayvion Wicks
Ethan
13.06-5
Cooper Kupp
Aidan
13.07+3
Cam Little
jonah
13.08-3
Adonai Mitchell
Max
13.09+21
Tre Tucker
evan
13.10-5
Ray Davis
Coby
13.11-5
Kayshon Boutte
Zach
13.12-5
Tank Bigsby
Spencer
14.01+7
Alvin Kamara
Spencer
14.02-5
Emmett Johnson
Zach
14.03-5
Cyrus Allen
Coby
14.04-4
Eagles
evan
14.05+3
Jonah Coleman
Max
14.06+15
Braelon Allen
jonah
14.07-4
Caleb Douglas
Aidan
14.08-4
Malik Davis
Ethan
14.09-4
Kaelon Black
Lewis
14.10-4
Malachi Fields
oren
14.11-4
Jalen Nailor
dylan
14.12+18
Steelers
Tyler
15.01-4
Kimani Vidal
Tyler
15.02-4
Will Reichard
dylan
15.03-4
Kenyon Sadiq
oren
15.04+2
Lions
Lewis
15.05-3
Travis Hunter
Ethan
15.06-3
Tank Dell
Aidan
15.07-3
Isaac TeSlaa
jonah
15.08-4
Malik Washington
Max
15.09-4
Jalen McMillan
evan
15.10-3
Ryan Flournoy
Coby
15.11-3
Dylan Sampson
Zach
15.12-3
Harrison Mevis
Spencer
16.01-1
Patriots
Spencer
16.02-3
Chris Bell
Zach
16.03-3
Tyler Loop
Coby
16.04-3
Ricky Pearsall
evan
16.05-3
Jaylin Noel
Max
16.06+10
Brock Purdy
jonah
16.07+19
Jaguars
Aidan
16.08+15
Evan McPherson
Ethan
16.09+3
Jake Bates
Lewis
16.10-3
Matthew Stafford
oren
16.11-3
Jerry Jeudy
dylan
16.12-3
Kyler Murray
Tyler
03
Evidence
The year-end receipts
2021
Best drafters in the league
- 01LewisA+
- 02jonahA
- 03AidanA-
- 04TylerB+
- 05SpencerB
- 06dylanB-
- 07CobyC+
- 08ZachC
- 09orenC-
- 10evanD+
- 11EthanD
- 12MaxF
2021
League superlatives
The Oracle
Lewis
Best draft grade · A+ · +21.0/pick
The Sniper
Aidan
Best single pick over slot · Cooper Kupp +164.6
Bargain Hunter
dylan
Most value from rounds 10+ · +58
Boom or Bust
Aidan
Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 44
Steady Hand
Ethan
Most consistent picks · σ 12
Dead Money
Zach
Worst first-round return · −53
Draft day → final standings
Does the draft decide anything?
r = +0.57
Draft day decides this league. Based on 102 team-seasons.
Season by season
Best draft vs the champion's draft
| Season | Best draft | Finished | Champion's draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Aidan (A+) | 3rd | Coby (draft #2 of 12) |
| 2024 | Lewis (A+) | 5th | Ethan (draft #5 of 12) |
| 2023 | jonah (A+) | 6th | Max (draft #10 of 12) |
| 2022 | Spencer (A+) | 1st | Spencer (draft #1 of 12) |
| 2021 | Lewis (A+) | 2nd | Tyler (draft #4 of 12) |
| 2019 | Spencer (A+) | 1st | Spencer (draft #1 of 12) |
| 2018 | jonah (A+) | 1st | jonah (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2017 | joshua (A+) | 1st | joshua (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2016 | jonah (A+) | 2nd | Lewis (draft #7 of 10) |
04
Scouting archive
How this room drafts
Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).
| Manager | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 | R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach | RB | WR | RB | WR | RB | QB | WR | WR | TE | WR | RB | WR | K | RB | TE | QB |
| Spencer | RB | TE | WR | RB | RB | WR | QB | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | TE | DEF | K | RB |
| dylan | RB | RB | WR | WR | RB | TE | QB | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | DEF | RB | K | RB |
| Ethan | RB | WR | QB | RB | TE | WR | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | TE | RB | WR | WR | DEF |
| Aidan | RB | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | TE | QB | WR | RB | RB | TE | K | DEF | WR | WR |
| oren | RB | WR | RB | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | WR | DEF | TE | RB | WR | RB | QB | K |
| Coby | WR | WR | WR | RB | RB | QB | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | TE | WR | RB | K | DEF |
| Tyler | TE | RB | TE | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | WR | DEF | RB | K | WR | WR | RB | WR |
| Max | WR | WR | RB | RB | TE | WR | WR | WR | QB | DEF | QB | RB | RB | WR | K | WR |
| Lewis | RB | WR | QB | WR | TE | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | TE | DEF | QB | K | DEF | TE |
| jonah | RB | RB | WR | WR | RB | WR | QB | TE | RB | RB | WR | DEF | WR | K | TE | QB |
| evan | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | TE | QB | WR | WR | RB | RB | DEF | K | QB | TE |
All drafts on record
League draft meta
| Position | Avg first off the board | Median pick | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | pick 30 (≈ R3) | 85 | 21–192 |
| RB | pick 2 (≈ R1) | 76 | 1–192 |
| WR | pick 3 (≈ R1) | 81 | 1–191 |
| TE | pick 17 (≈ R2) | 90 | 3–192 |
| K | pick 125 (≈ R11) | 156 | 96–192 |
| DEF | pick 110 (≈ R10) | 144 | 84–191 |