The archive · process meets outcome
Draft History
Draft archive9 drafts graded2016–2025 · Snake
1,824Picks
A+
Lewis
2021 · 16 graded picks
#1 of 12
drafters
Hit rate
56%
beat the slot
Smashes
31%
top 15% picks
Busts
13%
bottom 20%
Draft surplus
+336
useful pts
Per pick
+21.0
Best pick
+112
Deebo Samuel Sr.
01
Diagnosis
Lewis's drafting profile
Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.
How Lewis gets better
The film room
The Deebo Samuel Sr. read
Taken at pick 82 in 2021, he returned +111.9 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.
WR is your money position
5 WR picks returned 2.31× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.
DEF is your blind spot
2 DEF picks returned 45% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.
Late-round sniper
Rounds 10+ returned +42 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.
DeAndre Hopkins still hurts
Pick 15 in 2021 came in −19.3 under the slot.
Return on draft capital
Where you hit, where you miss
QB
2.29×
2 picks · 50% beat slot
RB
1.90×
3 picks · 100% beat slot
WR
2.31×
5 picks · 60% beat slot
TE
1.26×
3 picks · 33% beat slot
K
2.10×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
DEF
0.45×
2 picks · 0% beat slot
Early (R1–4)
+101
4 picks · 75% hit
Mid (R5–9)
+193
5 picks · 80% hit
Late (R10+)
+42
7 picks · 29% hit
Signature steals
The picks that won
WR+112
Deebo Samuel Sr.
2021 · Rd 7 · pick 82 · 130.4 useful vs 18.5 expected
QB+70
Josh Allen
2021 · Rd 3 · pick 34 · 110.0 useful vs 39.7 expected
WR+68
Jaylen Waddle
2021 · Rd 9 · pick 106 · 80.4 useful vs 12.1 expected
The ones that haunt
The picks that didn't
WR−19
DeAndre Hopkins
2021 · Rd 2 · pick 15 · 34.2 useful vs 53.5 expected
WR−17
Kenny Golladay
2021 · Rd 8 · pick 87 · 0.0 useful vs 16.9 expected
TE−9
Irv Smith Jr.
2021 · Rd 11 · pick 130 · 0.0 useful vs 8.8 expected
02
The room
Prior draft boards
Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.
1.01-77
Christian McCaffrey
oren
1.02-40
Tyreek Hill
Spencer
1.03-15
CeeDee Lamb
Max
1.04-25
Breece Hall
dylan
1.05+103
Ja'Marr Chase
Lewis
1.06+15
Bijan Robinson
Aidan
1.07+40
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Coby
1.08+28
Justin Jefferson
jonah
1.09-35
Garrett Wilson
Zach
1.10+8
Jonathan Taylor
Ethan
1.11+68
Saquon Barkley
evan
1.12+11
A.J. Brown
Tyler
2.01+25
Jahmyr Gibbs
Tyler
2.02-24
Marvin Harrison Jr.
evan
2.03-4
Davante Adams
Ethan
2.04-15
Kyren Williams
Zach
2.05+40
Derrick Henry
jonah
2.06-50
Travis Etienne Jr.
Coby
2.07+21
Puka Nacua
dylan
2.08-50
Isiah Pacheco
Lewis
2.09+19
Cooper Kupp
Aidan
2.10+30
De'Von Achane
Max
2.11-24
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Spencer
2.12-27
Chris Olave
oren
3.01+21
Drake London
oren
3.02+52
Josh Allen
Spencer
3.03-13
Rashee Rice
Max
3.04+6
Nico Collins
Aidan
3.05+13
Travis Kelce
Lewis
3.06+25
Mike Evans
Aidan
3.07-20
Jaylen Waddle
Coby
3.08-38
Sam LaPorta
jonah
3.09+1
DK Metcalf
Zach
3.10+27
Josh Jacobs
Ethan
3.11-30
Brandon Aiyuk
evan
3.12-19
DJ Moore
Tyler
4.01+45
Jalen Hurts
Tyler
4.02-28
Michael Pittman Jr.
evan
4.03+41
Malik Nabers
Ethan
4.04+4
DeVonta Smith
Zach
4.05+20
James Cook III
jonah
4.06+40
Alvin Kamara
Coby
4.07-12
Rachaad White
dylan
4.08+5
Stefon Diggs
Lewis
4.09-28
Joe Mixon
dylan
4.10-4
Kenneth Walker III
Max
4.11+0
Tee Higgins
Spencer
4.12-28
Trey McBride
oren
5.01-28
Amari Cooper
oren
5.02-19
Dalton Kincaid
Spencer
5.03-28
Tank Dell
Max
5.04+10
George Pickens
dylan
5.05+60
Joe Burrow
Lewis
5.06-27
Terry McLaurin
dylan
5.07+77
Lamar Jackson
Coby
5.08-6
Patrick Mahomes
jonah
5.09-22
Mark Andrews
Zach
5.10+28
Zay Flowers
Ethan
5.11+18
Aaron Jones Sr.
evan
5.12+37
James Conner
Tyler
6.01-15
Jerome Ford
Tyler
6.02-3
Kyler Murray
evan
6.03-19
Christian Kirk
Ethan
6.04-13
Anthony Richardson Sr.
Zach
6.05+8
Diontae Johnson
jonah
6.06+37
Chris Godwin Jr.
Coby
6.07+5
David Montgomery
Aidan
6.08+4
Keenan Allen
Lewis
6.09-11
C.J. Stroud
Aidan
6.10-14
Najee Harris
Max
6.11-1
D'Andre Swift
Spencer
6.12-20
Calvin Ridley
oren
7.01-20
Dak Prescott
oren
7.02+1
Rhamondre Stevenson
Spencer
7.03+4
Xavier Worthy
Max
7.04-20
Zamir White
dylan
7.05+30
Jayden Reed
Lewis
7.06+69
George Kittle
Aidan
7.07-10
Brian Robinson Jr.
Coby
7.080
Rome Odunze
jonah
7.09-19
Raheem Mostert
Zach
7.10+20
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Ethan
7.11-7
Javonte Williams
evan
7.12-15
Courtland Sutton
Tyler
8.01-17
Devin Singletary
Tyler
8.02-6
Evan Engram
evan
8.03-5
Jake Ferguson
Ethan
8.04+1
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Zach
8.05-16
Hollywood Brown
jonah
8.06-8
Ladd McConkey
Coby
8.07+8
Tony Pollard
Aidan
8.08-9
Nick Chubb
Lewis
8.09-16
Christian Watson
dylan
8.10+5
David Njoku
Max
8.11-3
Zack Moss
Spencer
8.12+41
Brian Thomas Jr.
oren
9.01-14
Keon Coleman
oren
9.02-14
DeAndre Hopkins
Spencer
9.03+19
Jayden Daniels
Max
9.04+8
Jameson Williams
dylan
9.05-14
Gus Edwards
Lewis
9.06+24
Jordan Addison
Aidan
9.07+30
Chase Brown
Coby
9.08-13
Tyjae Spears
jonah
9.09-13
Jaylen Warren
Zach
9.10-12
Austin Ekeler
Ethan
9.11+6
Rashid Shaheed
evan
9.12+21
Khalil Shakir
Tyler
10.01+74
Brock Bowers
Tyler
10.02-12
Curtis Samuel
evan
10.03+9
Jordan Love
Ethan
10.04-11
Blake Corum
Zach
10.05-2
Romeo Doubs
jonah
10.06+15
Dallas Goedert
Coby
10.07-9
Adam Thielen
Aidan
10.08-11
Joshua Palmer
Lewis
10.09-11
Jonathon Brooks
dylan
10.10-10
Ezekiel Elliott
Max
10.11-10
Mike Williams
Spencer
10.12-10
Jaleel McLaughlin
oren
11.01+7
Jordan Mason
oren
11.02-9
Adonai Mitchell
Spencer
11.03+4
Zach Charbonnet
Max
11.04-9
Trey Benson
dylan
11.05+27
Chuba Hubbard
Lewis
11.06+6
Josh Downs
Aidan
11.07-9
Tyler Lockett
Coby
11.08-9
Jakobi Meyers
jonah
11.09+40
Jerry Jeudy
Zach
11.10-9
Ty Chandler
Ethan
11.11+4
Jets
evan
11.12-8
Pat Freiermuth
Tyler
12.01-9
DeMario Douglas
Tyler
12.02+39
Brandon Aubrey
evan
12.03-8
Dontayvion Wicks
Ethan
12.04+6
Justin Tucker
Zach
12.05-8
Dalton Schultz
jonah
12.06-1
Rico Dowdle
Coby
12.07-8
Tyler Allgeier
Aidan
12.08-8
Gabe Davis
Lewis
12.09-4
J.K. Dobbins
dylan
12.10-2
T.J. Hockenson
Max
12.11-9
Brandin Cooks
Spencer
12.12-8
Cole Kmet
oren
13.01+11
Brock Purdy
oren
13.02-8
Ja'Lynn Polk
Spencer
13.03-8
Darnell Mooney
Max
13.04+3
Caleb Williams
dylan
13.05+12
Evan McPherson
Lewis
13.06+5
Harrison Butker
Aidan
13.07-8
Jaylen Wright
Coby
13.08-3
Jake Elliott
jonah
13.09-8
Ray Davis
Zach
13.10-8
Braelon Allen
Ethan
13.11-8
Xavier Legette
evan
13.12-8
Demarcus Robinson
Tyler
14.01+15
49ers
Tyler
14.02+8
Jared Goff
evan
14.03-8
Jermaine Burton
Ethan
14.04-8
Dyami Brown
Zach
14.05-4
Cowboys
jonah
14.06-7
Roman Wilson
Coby
14.07-7
Jahan Dotson
Aidan
14.08-7
Luke Musgrave
Lewis
14.09+2
Browns
dylan
14.10-7
Taysom Hill
Max
14.11-7
Ravens
Spencer
14.12+26
Steelers
oren
15.01-5
Cameron Dicker
oren
15.02+18
Younghoe Koo
Spencer
15.03-6
Jalen McMillan
Max
15.04-6
Jason Sanders
dylan
15.05-6
Justin Herbert
Lewis
15.06-6
Dameon Pierce
Aidan
15.07+19
Jake Moody
Coby
15.08-6
Tua Tagovailoa
jonah
15.09-6
Kendrick Bourne
Zach
15.10-6
Daniel Carlson
Ethan
15.11-6
Antonio Gibson
evan
15.12-6
Isaiah Likely
Tyler
16.01-5
Matt Gay
Tyler
16.02-5
Rashod Bateman
evan
16.03-5
Michael Wilson
Ethan
16.04-5
Chiefs
Zach
16.05-2
Bucky Irving
jonah
16.06-5
Ricky Pearsall
Coby
16.07-5
Bills
Aidan
16.08-5
Wan'Dale Robinson
Lewis
16.09+13
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
dylan
16.10-5
Greg Dortch
Max
16.11-5
Khalil Herbert
Spencer
16.120
Hunter Henry
oren
03
Evidence
The year-end receipts
2021
Best drafters in the league
- 01LewisA+
- 02jonahA
- 03AidanA-
- 04TylerB+
- 05SpencerB
- 06dylanB-
- 07CobyC+
- 08ZachC
- 09orenC-
- 10evanD+
- 11EthanD
- 12MaxF
2021
League superlatives
The Oracle
Lewis
Best draft grade · A+ · +21.0/pick
The Sniper
Aidan
Best single pick over slot · Cooper Kupp +164.6
Bargain Hunter
dylan
Most value from rounds 10+ · +58
Boom or Bust
Aidan
Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 44
Steady Hand
Ethan
Most consistent picks · σ 12
Dead Money
Zach
Worst first-round return · −53
Draft day → final standings
Does the draft decide anything?
r = +0.57
Draft day decides this league. Based on 102 team-seasons.
Season by season
Best draft vs the champion's draft
| Season | Best draft | Finished | Champion's draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Aidan (A+) | 3rd | Coby (draft #2 of 12) |
| 2024 | Lewis (A+) | 5th | Ethan (draft #5 of 12) |
| 2023 | jonah (A+) | 6th | Max (draft #10 of 12) |
| 2022 | Spencer (A+) | 1st | Spencer (draft #1 of 12) |
| 2021 | Lewis (A+) | 2nd | Tyler (draft #4 of 12) |
| 2019 | Spencer (A+) | 1st | Spencer (draft #1 of 12) |
| 2018 | jonah (A+) | 1st | jonah (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2017 | joshua (A+) | 1st | joshua (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2016 | jonah (A+) | 2nd | Lewis (draft #7 of 10) |
04
Scouting archive
How this room drafts
Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).
| Manager | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 | R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach | RB | WR | RB | WR | RB | QB | WR | WR | TE | WR | RB | WR | K | RB | TE | QB |
| Spencer | RB | TE | WR | RB | RB | WR | QB | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | TE | DEF | K | RB |
| dylan | RB | RB | WR | WR | RB | TE | QB | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | DEF | RB | K | RB |
| Ethan | RB | WR | QB | RB | TE | WR | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | TE | RB | WR | WR | DEF |
| Aidan | RB | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | TE | QB | WR | RB | RB | TE | K | DEF | WR | WR |
| oren | RB | WR | RB | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | WR | DEF | TE | RB | WR | RB | QB | K |
| Coby | WR | WR | WR | RB | RB | QB | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | TE | WR | RB | K | DEF |
| Tyler | TE | RB | TE | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | WR | DEF | RB | K | WR | WR | RB | WR |
| Max | WR | WR | RB | RB | TE | WR | WR | WR | QB | DEF | QB | RB | RB | WR | K | WR |
| Lewis | RB | WR | QB | WR | TE | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | TE | DEF | QB | K | DEF | TE |
| jonah | RB | RB | WR | WR | RB | WR | QB | TE | RB | RB | WR | DEF | WR | K | TE | QB |
| evan | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | TE | QB | WR | WR | RB | RB | DEF | K | QB | TE |
All drafts on record
League draft meta
| Position | Avg first off the board | Median pick | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | pick 30 (≈ R3) | 85 | 21–192 |
| RB | pick 2 (≈ R1) | 76 | 1–192 |
| WR | pick 3 (≈ R1) | 81 | 1–191 |
| TE | pick 17 (≈ R2) | 90 | 3–192 |
| K | pick 125 (≈ R11) | 156 | 96–192 |
| DEF | pick 110 (≈ R10) | 144 | 84–191 |