The archive · process meets outcome

Draft History

Draft archive9 drafts graded2016–2025 · Snake

1,824Picks

Last year Last 3 years All time

A+

jonah

2023 · 16 graded picks

#1 of 12

drafters

Hit rate

69%

beat the slot

Smashes

25%

top 15% picks

Busts

bottom 20%

Draft surplus

+198

useful pts

Per pick

+12.4

Best pick

+84

DJ Moore

Diagnosis

jonah's drafting profile

Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.

How jonah gets better

The film room

The DJ Moore read

Taken at pick 55 in 2023, he returned +84.1 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.

TE is your money position

2 TE picks returned 2.41× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.

RB is your blind spot

4 RB picks returned 74% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.

The early rounds are leaking

Rounds 1–4 came in −1 under expectation (75% hit rate). That's where leagues are won and lost.

Late-round sniper

Rounds 10+ returned +39 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.

Khalil Herbert still hurts

Pick 79 in 2023 came in −18.9 under the slot.

Return on draft capital

Where you hit, where you miss

2.38×

2 picks · 100% beat slot

0.74×

4 picks · 25% beat slot

1.83×

6 picks · 67% beat slot

2.41×

2 picks · 100% beat slot

3.92×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

DEF

4.83×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

Early (R1–4)

−1

4 picks · 75% hit

Mid (R5–9)

+160

5 picks · 80% hit

Late (R10+)

+39

7 picks · 57% hit

Signature steals

The picks that won

DJ Moore

2023 · Rd 5 · pick 55 · 110.5 useful vs 26.4 expected

+84

Jordan Addison

2023 · Rd 8 · pick 90 · 55.3 useful vs 16.0 expected

+39

George Kittle

2023 · Rd 6 · pick 66 · 61.4 useful vs 23.2 expected

+38

The ones that haunt

The picks that didn't

Khalil Herbert

2023 · Rd 7 · pick 79 · 0.0 useful vs 18.9 expected

−19

Skyy Moore

2023 · Rd 10 · pick 114 · 0.0 useful vs 11.1 expected

−11

Bijan Robinson

2023 · Rd 1 · pick 7 · 51.2 useful vs 60.0 expected

−9

The room

Prior draft boards

Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.

1.01-77

Christian McCaffrey

oren

1.02-40

Tyreek Hill

Spencer

1.03-15

CeeDee Lamb

Max

1.04-25

Breece Hall

dylan

1.05+103

Ja'Marr Chase

Lewis

1.06+15

Bijan Robinson

Aidan

1.07+40

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Coby

1.08+28

Justin Jefferson

jonah

1.09-35

Garrett Wilson

Zach

1.10+8

Jonathan Taylor

Ethan

1.11+68

Saquon Barkley

evan

1.12+11

A.J. Brown

Tyler

2.01+25

Jahmyr Gibbs

Tyler

2.02-24

Marvin Harrison Jr.

evan

2.03-4

Davante Adams

Ethan

2.04-15

Kyren Williams

Zach

2.05+40

Derrick Henry

jonah

2.06-50

Travis Etienne Jr.

Coby

2.07+21

Puka Nacua

dylan

2.08-50

Isiah Pacheco

Lewis

2.09+19

Cooper Kupp

Aidan

2.10+30

De'Von Achane

Max

2.11-24

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Spencer

2.12-27

Chris Olave

oren

3.01+21

Drake London

oren

3.02+52

Josh Allen

Spencer

3.03-13

Rashee Rice

Max

3.04+6

Nico Collins

Aidan

3.05+13

Travis Kelce

Lewis

3.06+25

Mike Evans

Aidan

3.07-20

Jaylen Waddle

Coby

3.08-38

Sam LaPorta

jonah

3.09+1

DK Metcalf

Zach

3.10+27

Josh Jacobs

Ethan

3.11-30

Brandon Aiyuk

evan

3.12-19

DJ Moore

Tyler

4.01+45

Jalen Hurts

Tyler

4.02-28

Michael Pittman Jr.

evan

4.03+41

Malik Nabers

Ethan

4.04+4

DeVonta Smith

Zach

4.05+20

James Cook III

jonah

4.06+40

Alvin Kamara

Coby

4.07-12

Rachaad White

dylan

4.08+5

Stefon Diggs

Lewis

4.09-28

Joe Mixon

dylan

4.10-4

Kenneth Walker III

Max

4.11+0

Tee Higgins

Spencer

4.12-28

Trey McBride

oren

5.01-28

Amari Cooper

oren

5.02-19

Dalton Kincaid

Spencer

5.03-28

Tank Dell

Max

5.04+10

George Pickens

dylan

5.05+60

Joe Burrow

Lewis

5.06-27

Terry McLaurin

dylan

5.07+77

Lamar Jackson

Coby

5.08-6

Patrick Mahomes

jonah

5.09-22

Mark Andrews

Zach

5.10+28

Zay Flowers

Ethan

5.11+18

Aaron Jones Sr.

evan

5.12+37

James Conner

Tyler

6.01-15

Jerome Ford

Tyler

6.02-3

Kyler Murray

evan

6.03-19

Christian Kirk

Ethan

6.04-13

Anthony Richardson Sr.

Zach

6.05+8

Diontae Johnson

jonah

6.06+37

Chris Godwin Jr.

Coby

6.07+5

David Montgomery

Aidan

6.08+4

Keenan Allen

Lewis

6.09-11

C.J. Stroud

Aidan

6.10-14

Najee Harris

Max

6.11-1

D'Andre Swift

Spencer

6.12-20

Calvin Ridley

oren

7.01-20

Dak Prescott

oren

7.02+1

Rhamondre Stevenson

Spencer

7.03+4

Xavier Worthy

Max

7.04-20

Zamir White

dylan

7.05+30

Jayden Reed

Lewis

7.06+69

George Kittle

Aidan

7.07-10

Brian Robinson Jr.

Coby

7.080

Rome Odunze

jonah

7.09-19

Raheem Mostert

Zach

7.10+20

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Ethan

7.11-7

Javonte Williams

evan

7.12-15

Courtland Sutton

Tyler

8.01-17

Devin Singletary

Tyler

8.02-6

Evan Engram

evan

8.03-5

Jake Ferguson

Ethan

8.04+1

Kyle Pitts Sr.

Zach

8.05-16

Hollywood Brown

jonah

8.06-8

Ladd McConkey

Coby

8.07+8

Tony Pollard

Aidan

8.08-9

Nick Chubb

Lewis

8.09-16

Christian Watson

dylan

8.10+5

David Njoku

Max

8.11-3

Zack Moss

Spencer

8.12+41

Brian Thomas Jr.

oren

9.01-14

Keon Coleman

oren

9.02-14

DeAndre Hopkins

Spencer

9.03+19

Jayden Daniels

Max

9.04+8

Jameson Williams

dylan

9.05-14

Gus Edwards

Lewis

9.06+24

Jordan Addison

Aidan

9.07+30

Chase Brown

Coby

9.08-13

Tyjae Spears

jonah

9.09-13

Jaylen Warren

Zach

9.10-12

Austin Ekeler

Ethan

9.11+6

Rashid Shaheed

evan

9.12+21

Khalil Shakir

Tyler

10.01+74

Brock Bowers

Tyler

10.02-12

Curtis Samuel

evan

10.03+9

Jordan Love

Ethan

10.04-11

Blake Corum

Zach

10.05-2

Romeo Doubs

jonah

10.06+15

Dallas Goedert

Coby

10.07-9

Adam Thielen

Aidan

10.08-11

Joshua Palmer

Lewis

10.09-11

Jonathon Brooks

dylan

10.10-10

Ezekiel Elliott

Max

10.11-10

Mike Williams

Spencer

10.12-10

Jaleel McLaughlin

oren

11.01+7

Jordan Mason

oren

11.02-9

Adonai Mitchell

Spencer

11.03+4

Zach Charbonnet

Max

11.04-9

Trey Benson

dylan

11.05+27

Chuba Hubbard

Lewis

11.06+6

Josh Downs

Aidan

11.07-9

Tyler Lockett

Coby

11.08-9

Jakobi Meyers

jonah

11.09+40

Jerry Jeudy

Zach

11.10-9

Ty Chandler

Ethan

11.11+4

Jets

evan

11.12-8

Pat Freiermuth

Tyler

12.01-9

DeMario Douglas

Tyler

12.02+39

Brandon Aubrey

evan

12.03-8

Dontayvion Wicks

Ethan

12.04+6

Justin Tucker

Zach

12.05-8

Dalton Schultz

jonah

12.06-1

Rico Dowdle

Coby

12.07-8

Tyler Allgeier

Aidan

12.08-8

Gabe Davis

Lewis

12.09-4

J.K. Dobbins

dylan

12.10-2

T.J. Hockenson

Max

12.11-9

Brandin Cooks

Spencer

12.12-8

Cole Kmet

oren

13.01+11

Brock Purdy

oren

13.02-8

Ja'Lynn Polk

Spencer

13.03-8

Darnell Mooney

Max

13.04+3

Caleb Williams

dylan

13.05+12

Evan McPherson

Lewis

13.06+5

Harrison Butker

Aidan

13.07-8

Jaylen Wright

Coby

13.08-3

Jake Elliott

jonah

13.09-8

Ray Davis

Zach

13.10-8

Braelon Allen

Ethan

13.11-8

Xavier Legette

evan

13.12-8

Demarcus Robinson

Tyler

14.01+15

49ers

Tyler

14.02+8

Jared Goff

evan

14.03-8

Jermaine Burton

Ethan

14.04-8

Dyami Brown

Zach

14.05-4

Cowboys

jonah

14.06-7

Roman Wilson

Coby

14.07-7

Jahan Dotson

Aidan

14.08-7

Luke Musgrave

Lewis

14.09+2

Browns

dylan

14.10-7

Taysom Hill

Max

14.11-7

Ravens

Spencer

14.12+26

Steelers

oren

15.01-5

Cameron Dicker

oren

15.02+18

Younghoe Koo

Spencer

15.03-6

Jalen McMillan

Max

15.04-6

Jason Sanders

dylan

15.05-6

Justin Herbert

Lewis

15.06-6

Dameon Pierce

Aidan

15.07+19

Jake Moody

Coby

15.08-6

Tua Tagovailoa

jonah

15.09-6

Kendrick Bourne

Zach

15.10-6

Daniel Carlson

Ethan

15.11-6

Antonio Gibson

evan

15.12-6

Isaiah Likely

Tyler

16.01-5

Matt Gay

Tyler

16.02-5

Rashod Bateman

evan

16.03-5

Michael Wilson

Ethan

16.04-5

Chiefs

Zach

16.05-2

Bucky Irving

jonah

16.06-5

Ricky Pearsall

Coby

16.07-5

Bills

Aidan

16.08-5

Wan'Dale Robinson

Lewis

16.09+13

Tyrone Tracy Jr.

dylan

16.10-5

Greg Dortch

Max

16.11-5

Khalil Herbert

Spencer

16.120

Hunter Henry

oren

Evidence

The year-end receipts

2023

Best drafters in the league

01jonah
A+
02dylan
A
03Aidan
A-
04Zach
B+
05Lewis
B
06Tyler
B-
07Ethan
C+
08evan
C
09Coby
C-
10Max
D+
11oren
D
12Spencer
F

2023

League superlatives

The Oracle

jonah

Best draft grade · A+ · +12.4/pick

The Sniper

Max

Best single pick over slot · Christian McCaffrey +90.9

Bargain Hunter

dylan

Most value from rounds 10+ · +83

Boom or Bust

evan

Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 27

Steady Hand

Spencer

Most consistent picks · σ 16

Dead Money

Tyler

Worst first-round return · −50

Draft day → final standings

Does the draft decide anything?

r = +0.57

Draft day decides this league. Based on 102 team-seasons.

Season by season

Best draft vs the champion's draft

Season	Best draft	Finished	Champion's draft
2025	Aidan (A+)	3rd	Coby (draft #2 of 12)
2024	Lewis (A+)	5th	Ethan (draft #5 of 12)
2023	jonah (A+)	6th	Max (draft #10 of 12)
2022	Spencer (A+)	1st	Spencer (draft #1 of 12)
2021	Lewis (A+)	2nd	Tyler (draft #4 of 12)
2019	Spencer (A+)	1st	Spencer (draft #1 of 12)
2018	jonah (A+)	1st	jonah (draft #1 of 10)
2017	joshua (A+)	1st	joshua (draft #1 of 10)
2016	jonah (A+)	2nd	Lewis (draft #7 of 10)

Scouting archive

How this room drafts

Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).

Manager	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16
oren	WR	RB	RB	QB	WR	TE	WR	RB	WR	RB	RB	WR	TE	K	DEF	RB
Coby	WR	WR	WR	QB	TE	RB	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	RB	TE	K	QB	QB
evan	TE	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	DEF	QB	WR	RB	K	RB	RB
Max	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	QB	RB	RB	RB	RB	TE	WR	WR	WR	WR	DEF
dylan	WR	WR	QB	RB	RB	WR	WR	TE	RB	WR	RB	WR	DEF	K	WR	WR
Zach	RB	WR	QB	RB	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	WR	DEF	K	WR	RB	TE	WR
jonah	RB	RB	WR	WR	WR	TE	RB	WR	QB	WR	DEF	WR	RB	K	TE	QB
Ethan	WR	WR	QB	RB	TE	RB	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	TE	K
Tyler	RB	RB	WR	QB	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	DEF	RB	TE	WR	QB	K	RB
Aidan	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	TE	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	K	WR	WR	DEF
Lewis	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	RB	WR	QB	WR	WR	WR	WR	QB	K	DEF	RB
Spencer	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	WR	RB	WR	QB	RB	RB	DEF	WR

All drafts on record

League draft meta

Position	Avg first off the board	Median pick	Range
QB	pick 30 (≈ R3)	85	21–192
RB	pick 2 (≈ R1)	76	1–192
WR	pick 3 (≈ R1)	81	1–191
TE	pick 17 (≈ R2)	90	3–192
K	pick 125 (≈ R11)	156	96–192
DEF	pick 110 (≈ R10)	144	84–191