The archive · process meets outcome

Draft History

Draft archive9 drafts graded2016–2025 · Snake

1,824Picks

Last year Last 3 years All time

A+

jonah

2023 · 16 graded picks

#1 of 12

drafters

Hit rate

69%

beat the slot

Smashes

25%

top 15% picks

Busts

bottom 20%

Draft surplus

+198

useful pts

Per pick

+12.4

Best pick

+84

DJ Moore

Diagnosis

jonah's drafting profile

Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.

How jonah gets better

The film room

The DJ Moore read

Taken at pick 55 in 2023, he returned +84.1 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.

TE is your money position

2 TE picks returned 2.41× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.

RB is your blind spot

4 RB picks returned 74% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.

The early rounds are leaking

Rounds 1–4 came in −1 under expectation (75% hit rate). That's where leagues are won and lost.

Late-round sniper

Rounds 10+ returned +39 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.

Khalil Herbert still hurts

Pick 79 in 2023 came in −18.9 under the slot.

Return on draft capital

Where you hit, where you miss

2.38×

2 picks · 100% beat slot

0.74×

4 picks · 25% beat slot

1.83×

6 picks · 67% beat slot

2.41×

2 picks · 100% beat slot

3.92×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

DEF

4.83×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

Early (R1–4)

−1

4 picks · 75% hit

Mid (R5–9)

+160

5 picks · 80% hit

Late (R10+)

+39

7 picks · 57% hit

Signature steals

The picks that won

DJ Moore

2023 · Rd 5 · pick 55 · 110.5 useful vs 26.4 expected

+84

Jordan Addison

2023 · Rd 8 · pick 90 · 55.3 useful vs 16.0 expected

+39

George Kittle

2023 · Rd 6 · pick 66 · 61.4 useful vs 23.2 expected

+38

The ones that haunt

The picks that didn't

Khalil Herbert

2023 · Rd 7 · pick 79 · 0.0 useful vs 18.9 expected

−19

Skyy Moore

2023 · Rd 10 · pick 114 · 0.0 useful vs 11.1 expected

−11

Bijan Robinson

2023 · Rd 1 · pick 7 · 51.2 useful vs 60.0 expected

−9

The room

Prior draft boards

Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.

1.01+54

Antonio Brown

Coby

1.02+19

Julio Jones

Max

1.03+21

Odell Beckham Jr.

Aidan

1.04-64

Todd Gurley

Lewis

1.05+107

David Johnson

Ethan

1.06-54

DeAndre Hopkins

oren

1.07+24

A.J. Green

jonah

1.08-63

Allen Robinson

Spencer

1.09-55

Adrian Peterson

evan

1.10-12

Rob Gronkowski

joshua

2.01-5

Dez Bryant

joshua

2.02-63

Le'Veon Bell

evan

2.03+45

Mike Evans

Spencer

2.04+76

Ezekiel Elliott

jonah

2.05-22

Brandon Marshall

oren

2.06-17

Lamar Miller

Ethan

2.07-54

Jamaal Charles

Lewis

2.08-50

Keenan Allen

Aidan

2.09-45

Jordy Nelson

Max

2.10+15

Amari Cooper

Coby

3.01-10

Brandin Cooks

Coby

3.02-42

Eric Decker

Max

3.03+5

Devonta Freeman

Aidan

3.04+53

Aaron Rodgers

Lewis

3.05-28

Mark Ingram II

Ethan

3.06-44

Doug Martin

oren

3.07-23

Alshon Jeffery

jonah

3.08-42

Eddie Lacy

Spencer

3.09-43

Sammy Watkins

evan

3.10+66

LeSean McCoy

joshua

4.01-12

Cam Newton

joshua

4.02-21

Jordan Reed

evan

4.03+20

Greg Olsen

Spencer

4.04+12

Demaryius Thomas

jonah

4.05-39

Thomas Rawls

oren

4.06+65

T.Y. Hilton

Ethan

4.07+9

Doug Baldwin

Lewis

4.08-23

Russell Wilson

Aidan

4.09-34

Randall Cobb

Max

4.10+13

Delanie Walker

Coby

5.01+6

Carlos Hyde

Coby

5.02+3

Tom Brady

Max

5.03+19

Jarvis Landry

Aidan

5.04+3

Kelvin Benjamin

Lewis

5.05+15

Andrew Luck

Ethan

5.06+22

Ben Roethlisberger

oren

5.07-6

C.J. Anderson

jonah

5.08-18

Latavius Murray

Spencer

5.09-5

Golden Tate

evan

5.10+4

Julian Edelman

joshua

6.01+68

DeMarco Murray

joshua

6.02-25

Jeremy Maclin

evan

6.03+47

Michael Crabtree

Spencer

6.04+59

Travis Kelce

jonah

6.05-23

Donte Moncrief

oren

6.06-25

Michael Floyd

Ethan

6.07-17

Allen Hurns

Lewis

6.08-26

Jonathan Stewart

Aidan

6.09-1

Matt Forte

Max

6.10-21

Ryan Mathews

Coby

7.01+13

Marvin Jones Jr.

Coby

7.02-17

Gary Barnidge

Max

7.03-10

Coby Fleener

Aidan

7.04-4

Jay Ajayi

Lewis

7.05+8

Jordan Matthews

Ethan

7.06+37

Larry Fitzgerald

oren

7.07+72

Drew Brees

jonah

7.08-22

John Brown

Spencer

7.09-22

Jeremy Hill

evan

7.10-21

Carson Palmer

joshua

8.01-20

Dion Lewis

joshua

8.02+12

DeAngelo Williams

evan

8.03-21

Jeremy Langford

Spencer

8.04-22

Tyler Lockett

jonah

8.05-21

Danny Woodhead

oren

8.06+15

Zach Ertz

Ethan

8.07-10

Julius Thomas

Lewis

8.08-19

Josh Gordon

Aidan

8.09-19

Matt Jones

Max

8.10-7

Blake Bortles

Coby

9.01-19

Tavon Austin

Coby

9.02-18

Emmanuel Sanders

Max

9.03+77

Melvin Gordon III

Aidan

9.04-16

DeVante Parker

Lewis

9.05+14

Broncos

Ethan

9.06+6

Tyler Eifert

oren

9.07+4

Frank Gore

jonah

9.08-12

Sterling Shepard

Spencer

9.09-16

Kevin White

evan

9.10-6

DeSean Jackson

joshua

10.01+37

Stefon Diggs

joshua

10.02-16

Philip Rivers

evan

10.03-16

Eli Manning

Spencer

10.04-7

Antonio Gates

jonah

10.05+27

Seahawks

oren

10.06+8

Stephen Gostkowski

Ethan

10.07+0

Rams

Lewis

10.08-14

Chris Ivory

Aidan

10.09+19

Cardinals

Max

10.10-14

Duke Johnson

Coby

11.01-14

Kirk Cousins

Coby

11.02-14

Ted Ginn Jr.

Max

11.03+1

Corey Coleman

Aidan

11.04-8

Rashad Jennings

Lewis

11.05-13

Arian Foster

Ethan

11.06-4

Travis Benjamin

oren

11.07+28

Willie Snead IV

jonah

11.08-12

Ameer Abdullah

Spencer

11.09-12

Martellus Bennett

evan

11.10-3

Panthers

joshua

12.01-12

Sammie Coates

joshua

12.02+3

Texans

evan

12.03+31

Derek Carr

Spencer

12.04+31

Patriots

jonah

12.05-11

Markus Wheaton

oren

12.06-11

Giovani Bernard

Ethan

12.07-11

LeGarrette Blount

Lewis

12.08-7

Jason Witten

Aidan

12.09-10

Isaiah Crowell

Max

12.10-10

Rishard Matthews

Coby

13.01-10

Justin Forsett

Coby

13.02-9

Ben Watson

Max

13.03-9

Laquon Treadwell

Aidan

13.04-9

Charles Johnson

Lewis

13.05-9

Tony Romo

Ethan

13.06-9

Ladarius Green

oren

13.07-8

Andy Dalton

jonah

13.08+1

Will Fuller V

Spencer

13.09+24

Michael Thomas

evan

13.10-9

Kamar Aiken

joshua

14.01-9

Josh Doctson

joshua

14.020

Graham Gano

evan

14.03-9

Dorial Green-Beckham

Spencer

14.04-9

Charles Sims

jonah

14.05-8

Stephen Hauschka

oren

14.06-9

Torrey Smith

Ethan

14.07-8

Zach Miller

Lewis

14.08-2

Jameis Winston

Aidan

14.09+38

Matt Ryan

Max

14.10+15

Chiefs

Coby

15.01-9

Theo Riddick

Coby

15.02-6

T.J. Yeldon

Max

15.03+14

Justin Tucker

Aidan

15.04+20

Mike Wallace

Lewis

15.05-8

Dwayne Allen

Ethan

15.06-8

Tyrod Taylor

oren

15.07-8

Devin Funchess

jonah

15.08-6

Chandler Catanzaro

Spencer

15.09-8

Derrick Henry

evan

15.10+14

Dan Bailey

joshua

16.01-8

Kendall Wright

joshua

16.02-9

Ryan Fitzpatrick

evan

16.03-3

Jaguars

Spencer

16.04-8

Connor Barth

jonah

16.05-8

Steve Smith

oren

16.06+17

Vikings

Ethan

16.07+8

Mohamed Sanu

Lewis

16.08+1

Raiders

Aidan

16.09-3

Blair Walsh

Max

16.10-8

Chris Boswell

Coby

Evidence

The year-end receipts

2023

Best drafters in the league

01jonah
A+
02dylan
A
03Aidan
A-
04Zach
B+
05Lewis
B
06Tyler
B-
07Ethan
C+
08evan
C
09Coby
C-
10Max
D+
11oren
D
12Spencer
F

2023

League superlatives

The Oracle

jonah

Best draft grade · A+ · +12.4/pick

The Sniper

Max

Best single pick over slot · Christian McCaffrey +90.9

Bargain Hunter

dylan

Most value from rounds 10+ · +83

Boom or Bust

evan

Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 27

Steady Hand

Spencer

Most consistent picks · σ 16

Dead Money

Tyler

Worst first-round return · −50

Draft day → final standings

Does the draft decide anything?

r = +0.57

Draft day decides this league. Based on 102 team-seasons.

Season by season

Best draft vs the champion's draft

Season	Best draft	Finished	Champion's draft
2025	Aidan (A+)	3rd	Coby (draft #2 of 12)
2024	Lewis (A+)	5th	Ethan (draft #5 of 12)
2023	jonah (A+)	6th	Max (draft #10 of 12)
2022	Spencer (A+)	1st	Spencer (draft #1 of 12)
2021	Lewis (A+)	2nd	Tyler (draft #4 of 12)
2019	Spencer (A+)	1st	Spencer (draft #1 of 12)
2018	jonah (A+)	1st	jonah (draft #1 of 10)
2017	joshua (A+)	1st	joshua (draft #1 of 10)
2016	jonah (A+)	2nd	Lewis (draft #7 of 10)

Scouting archive

How this room drafts

Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).

Manager	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16
oren	WR	RB	RB	QB	WR	TE	WR	RB	WR	RB	RB	WR	TE	K	DEF	RB
Coby	WR	WR	WR	QB	TE	RB	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	RB	TE	K	QB	QB
evan	TE	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	DEF	QB	WR	RB	K	RB	RB
Max	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	QB	RB	RB	RB	RB	TE	WR	WR	WR	WR	DEF
dylan	WR	WR	QB	RB	RB	WR	WR	TE	RB	WR	RB	WR	DEF	K	WR	WR
Zach	RB	WR	QB	RB	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	WR	DEF	K	WR	RB	TE	WR
jonah	RB	RB	WR	WR	WR	TE	RB	WR	QB	WR	DEF	WR	RB	K	TE	QB
Ethan	WR	WR	QB	RB	TE	RB	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	TE	K
Tyler	RB	RB	WR	QB	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	DEF	RB	TE	WR	QB	K	RB
Aidan	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	TE	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	K	WR	WR	DEF
Lewis	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	RB	WR	QB	WR	WR	WR	WR	QB	K	DEF	RB
Spencer	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	WR	RB	WR	QB	RB	RB	DEF	WR

All drafts on record

League draft meta

Position	Avg first off the board	Median pick	Range
QB	pick 30 (≈ R3)	85	21–192
RB	pick 2 (≈ R1)	76	1–192
WR	pick 3 (≈ R1)	81	1–191
TE	pick 17 (≈ R2)	90	3–192
K	pick 125 (≈ R11)	156	96–192
DEF	pick 110 (≈ R10)	144	84–191