The archive · process meets outcome

Draft History

Draft archive9 drafts graded2016–2025 · Snake

1,824Picks

Last year Last 3 years All time

A+

jonah

2023 · 16 graded picks

#1 of 12

drafters

Hit rate

69%

beat the slot

Smashes

25%

top 15% picks

Busts

bottom 20%

Draft surplus

+198

useful pts

Per pick

+12.4

Best pick

+84

DJ Moore

Diagnosis

jonah's drafting profile

Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.

How jonah gets better

The film room

The DJ Moore read

Taken at pick 55 in 2023, he returned +84.1 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.

TE is your money position

2 TE picks returned 2.41× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.

RB is your blind spot

4 RB picks returned 74% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.

The early rounds are leaking

Rounds 1–4 came in −1 under expectation (75% hit rate). That's where leagues are won and lost.

Late-round sniper

Rounds 10+ returned +39 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.

Khalil Herbert still hurts

Pick 79 in 2023 came in −18.9 under the slot.

Return on draft capital

Where you hit, where you miss

2.38×

2 picks · 100% beat slot

0.74×

4 picks · 25% beat slot

1.83×

6 picks · 67% beat slot

2.41×

2 picks · 100% beat slot

3.92×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

DEF

4.83×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

Early (R1–4)

−1

4 picks · 75% hit

Mid (R5–9)

+160

5 picks · 80% hit

Late (R10+)

+39

7 picks · 57% hit

Signature steals

The picks that won

DJ Moore

2023 · Rd 5 · pick 55 · 110.5 useful vs 26.4 expected

+84

Jordan Addison

2023 · Rd 8 · pick 90 · 55.3 useful vs 16.0 expected

+39

George Kittle

2023 · Rd 6 · pick 66 · 61.4 useful vs 23.2 expected

+38

The ones that haunt

The picks that didn't

Khalil Herbert

2023 · Rd 7 · pick 79 · 0.0 useful vs 18.9 expected

−19

Skyy Moore

2023 · Rd 10 · pick 114 · 0.0 useful vs 11.1 expected

−11

Bijan Robinson

2023 · Rd 1 · pick 7 · 51.2 useful vs 60.0 expected

−9

The room

Prior draft boards

Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.

1.01-82

David Johnson

oren

1.02+56

Le'Veon Bell

Spencer

1.03+81

Antonio Brown

Max

1.04+3

Julio Jones

Coby

1.05-43

Odell Beckham Jr.

Aidan

1.06+23

LeSean McCoy

joshua

1.07-10

Mike Evans

evan

1.08-39

Devonta Freeman

Ethan

1.09+35

Melvin Gordon III

jonah

1.10-56

Jay Ajayi

Lewis

2.01-17

A.J. Green

Lewis

2.02-29

Jordy Nelson

jonah

2.03-8

Brandin Cooks

Ethan

2.04-32

Jordan Howard

evan

2.05-16

Dez Bryant

joshua

2.06-32

DeMarco Murray

Aidan

2.07-8

Doug Baldwin

Coby

2.08-20

Michael Thomas

Max

2.09+1

Leonard Fournette

Spencer

2.10+1

T.Y. Hilton

oren

3.01+28

Ezekiel Elliott

oren

3.02-11

Amari Cooper

Spencer

3.03-49

Terrelle Pryor Sr.

Max

3.04+123

Todd Gurley

Coby

3.05-27

Christian McCaffrey

Aidan

3.06+90

DeAndre Hopkins

joshua

3.07-4

Demaryius Thomas

evan

3.08-42

Lamar Miller

Ethan

3.09-1

Carlos Hyde

jonah

3.10-20

Aaron Rodgers

Lewis

4.01+32

Rob Gronkowski

Lewis

4.02+8

Alshon Jeffery

jonah

4.03+15

Tom Brady

Ethan

4.04+16

Travis Kelce

evan

4.05-17

Drew Brees

joshua

4.06-38

Isaiah Crowell

Aidan

4.07-19

Dalvin Cook

Coby

4.08-12

Ty Montgomery II

Max

4.09+19

Davante Adams

Spencer

4.10+55

Keenan Allen

oren

5.01-32

Greg Olsen

oren

5.02-11

Jamison Crowder

Spencer

5.03-30

Joe Mixon

Max

5.04-5

Michael Crabtree

Coby

5.05-4

Kelvin Benjamin

Aidan

5.06-29

Allen Robinson

joshua

5.07-27

Marshawn Lynch

evan

5.08-14

Sammy Watkins

Ethan

5.09-8

C.J. Anderson

jonah

5.10+53

Mark Ingram II

Lewis

6.01-1

Golden Tate

Lewis

6.02+41

Jarvis Landry

jonah

6.03-14

DeVante Parker

Ethan

6.04-18

Martavis Bryant

evan

6.05-12

Jordan Reed

joshua

6.06-9

Jimmy Graham

Aidan

6.07+6

Larry Fitzgerald

Coby

6.08-24

Emmanuel Sanders

Max

6.09-25

Marcus Mariota

Spencer

6.10-26

Ameer Abdullah

oren

7.01-23

Matt Ryan

oren

7.02-24

Tyler Eifert

Spencer

7.03+20

Stefon Diggs

Max

7.04-18

Tyreek Hill

Coby

7.05-23

Willie Snead IV

Aidan

7.06+89

Kareem Hunt

joshua

7.07-23

Tyrell Williams

evan

7.08-22

Bilal Powell

Ethan

7.09+12

Russell Wilson

jonah

7.10-15

Jeremy Maclin

Lewis

8.01-20

Danny Woodhead

Lewis

8.02+15

Delanie Walker

jonah

8.03-21

Brandon Marshall

Ethan

8.04-22

Paul Perkins

evan

8.05-11

DeSean Jackson

joshua

8.06+6

Cam Newton

Aidan

8.07+20

Kirk Cousins

Coby

8.08-18

Frank Gore

Max

8.09-12

Hunter Henry

Spencer

8.10-19

Darren McFadden

oren

9.01-2

Pierre Garcon

oren

9.02-18

Mike Gillislee

Spencer

9.03-9

Tevin Coleman

Max

9.04+9

Kyle Rudolph

Coby

9.05-17

Adrian Peterson

Aidan

9.06-17

Rob Kelley

joshua

9.07-17

LeGarrette Blount

evan

9.08-17

Martellus Bennett

Ethan

9.09-16

Donte Moncrief

jonah

9.10-16

Kevin White

Lewis

10.01-16

Eddie Lacy

Lewis

10.02-3

Latavius Murray

jonah

10.03-16

Derrick Henry

Ethan

10.04+22

Chris Hogan

evan

10.05-15

Eric Decker

joshua

10.06-14

Kenny Britt

Aidan

10.07-6

Jameis Winston

Coby

10.08-14

Rishard Matthews

Max

10.09-14

Jacquizz Rodgers

Spencer

10.10+26

Seahawks

oren

11.01-13

Marvin Jones Jr.

oren

11.02-8

Corey Coleman

Spencer

11.03-10

Randall Cobb

Max

11.04-13

Jonathan Stewart

Coby

11.05-13

John Brown

Aidan

11.06+59

Adam Thielen

joshua

11.07-12

Jordan Matthews

evan

11.08-8

Ted Ginn Jr.

Ethan

11.09-12

C.J. Prosise

jonah

11.10-8

Doug Martin

Lewis

12.01-12

Zay Jones

Lewis

12.02-6

Cole Beasley

jonah

12.03-11

Theo Riddick

Ethan

12.04-11

Matt Forte

evan

12.05-11

Derek Carr

joshua

12.06-5

Mike Wallace

Aidan

12.07-11

Corey Davis

Coby

12.08+63

Zach Ertz

Max

12.09+20

Justin Tucker

Spencer

12.10-10

Andrew Luck

oren

13.01+29

Stephen Gostkowski

oren

13.02-9

Josh Doctson

Spencer

13.03+9

Chiefs

Max

13.04-9

Thomas Rawls

Coby

13.05-2

Dan Bailey

Aidan

13.06+10

Broncos

joshua

13.07-6

Cardinals

evan

13.08+17

Texans

Ethan

13.09-9

John Ross

jonah

13.10+3

Adam Vinatieri

Lewis

14.01-9

Robert Woods

Lewis

14.02+18

Vikings

jonah

14.03+3

Duke Johnson

Ethan

14.04-5

Ben Roethlisberger

evan

14.05-1

Jason Witten

joshua

14.06-6

Patriots

Aidan

14.07-8

Terrance West

Coby

14.08+6

Matthew Stafford

Max

14.09+12

Steelers

Spencer

14.10+37

Evan Engram

oren

15.01+17

Mohamed Sanu

oren

15.02-9

Andy Dalton

Spencer

15.03-9

Jeremy Hill

Max

15.04-8

Giants

Coby

15.050

Eli Manning

Aidan

15.06-7

Mason Crosby

joshua

15.07-8

Taylor Gabriel

evan

15.08+4

Graham Gano

Ethan

15.09+16

Matt Bryant

jonah

15.10-6

Raiders

Lewis

16.01-8

O.J. Howard

Lewis

16.02-9

Tyrod Taylor

jonah

16.03-3

James White

Ethan

16.04+2

Wil Lutz

evan

16.05-8

Tyler Lockett

joshua

16.06-8

Chris Conley

Aidan

16.07+8

Matt Prater

Coby

16.08-5

Stephen Hauschka

Max

16.09-8

Torrey Smith

Spencer

16.10-8

Darren Sproles

oren

Evidence

The year-end receipts

2023

Best drafters in the league

01jonah
A+
02dylan
A
03Aidan
A-
04Zach
B+
05Lewis
B
06Tyler
B-
07Ethan
C+
08evan
C
09Coby
C-
10Max
D+
11oren
D
12Spencer
F

2023

League superlatives

The Oracle

jonah

Best draft grade · A+ · +12.4/pick

The Sniper

Max

Best single pick over slot · Christian McCaffrey +90.9

Bargain Hunter

dylan

Most value from rounds 10+ · +83

Boom or Bust

evan

Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 27

Steady Hand

Spencer

Most consistent picks · σ 16

Dead Money

Tyler

Worst first-round return · −50

Draft day → final standings

Does the draft decide anything?

r = +0.57

Draft day decides this league. Based on 102 team-seasons.

Season by season

Best draft vs the champion's draft

Season	Best draft	Finished	Champion's draft
2025	Aidan (A+)	3rd	Coby (draft #2 of 12)
2024	Lewis (A+)	5th	Ethan (draft #5 of 12)
2023	jonah (A+)	6th	Max (draft #10 of 12)
2022	Spencer (A+)	1st	Spencer (draft #1 of 12)
2021	Lewis (A+)	2nd	Tyler (draft #4 of 12)
2019	Spencer (A+)	1st	Spencer (draft #1 of 12)
2018	jonah (A+)	1st	jonah (draft #1 of 10)
2017	joshua (A+)	1st	joshua (draft #1 of 10)
2016	jonah (A+)	2nd	Lewis (draft #7 of 10)

Scouting archive

How this room drafts

Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).

Manager	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16
oren	WR	RB	RB	QB	WR	TE	WR	RB	WR	RB	RB	WR	TE	K	DEF	RB
Coby	WR	WR	WR	QB	TE	RB	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	RB	TE	K	QB	QB
evan	TE	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	DEF	QB	WR	RB	K	RB	RB
Max	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	QB	RB	RB	RB	RB	TE	WR	WR	WR	WR	DEF
dylan	WR	WR	QB	RB	RB	WR	WR	TE	RB	WR	RB	WR	DEF	K	WR	WR
Zach	RB	WR	QB	RB	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	WR	DEF	K	WR	RB	TE	WR
jonah	RB	RB	WR	WR	WR	TE	RB	WR	QB	WR	DEF	WR	RB	K	TE	QB
Ethan	WR	WR	QB	RB	TE	RB	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	TE	K
Tyler	RB	RB	WR	QB	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	DEF	RB	TE	WR	QB	K	RB
Aidan	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	TE	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	K	WR	WR	DEF
Lewis	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	RB	WR	QB	WR	WR	WR	WR	QB	K	DEF	RB
Spencer	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	WR	RB	WR	QB	RB	RB	DEF	WR

All drafts on record

League draft meta

Position	Avg first off the board	Median pick	Range
QB	pick 30 (≈ R3)	85	21–192
RB	pick 2 (≈ R1)	76	1–192
WR	pick 3 (≈ R1)	81	1–191
TE	pick 17 (≈ R2)	90	3–192
K	pick 125 (≈ R11)	156	96–192
DEF	pick 110 (≈ R10)	144	84–191