The archive · process meets outcome
Draft History
Draft archive9 drafts graded2016–2025 · Snake
1,824Picks
A+
jonah
2023 · 16 graded picks
#1 of 12
drafters
Hit rate
69%
beat the slot
Smashes
25%
top 15% picks
Busts
6%
bottom 20%
Draft surplus
+198
useful pts
Per pick
+12.4
Best pick
+84
DJ Moore
01
Diagnosis
jonah's drafting profile
Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.
How jonah gets better
The film room
The DJ Moore read
Taken at pick 55 in 2023, he returned +84.1 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.
TE is your money position
2 TE picks returned 2.41× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.
RB is your blind spot
4 RB picks returned 74% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.
The early rounds are leaking
Rounds 1–4 came in −1 under expectation (75% hit rate). That's where leagues are won and lost.
Late-round sniper
Rounds 10+ returned +39 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.
Khalil Herbert still hurts
Pick 79 in 2023 came in −18.9 under the slot.
Return on draft capital
Where you hit, where you miss
QB
2.38×
2 picks · 100% beat slot
RB
0.74×
4 picks · 25% beat slot
WR
1.83×
6 picks · 67% beat slot
TE
2.41×
2 picks · 100% beat slot
K
3.92×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
DEF
4.83×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
Early (R1–4)
−1
4 picks · 75% hit
Mid (R5–9)
+160
5 picks · 80% hit
Late (R10+)
+39
7 picks · 57% hit
Signature steals
The picks that won
WR+84
DJ Moore
2023 · Rd 5 · pick 55 · 110.5 useful vs 26.4 expected
WR+39
Jordan Addison
2023 · Rd 8 · pick 90 · 55.3 useful vs 16.0 expected
TE+38
George Kittle
2023 · Rd 6 · pick 66 · 61.4 useful vs 23.2 expected
The ones that haunt
The picks that didn't
RB−19
Khalil Herbert
2023 · Rd 7 · pick 79 · 0.0 useful vs 18.9 expected
WR−11
Skyy Moore
2023 · Rd 10 · pick 114 · 0.0 useful vs 11.1 expected
RB−9
Bijan Robinson
2023 · Rd 1 · pick 7 · 51.2 useful vs 60.0 expected
02
The room
Prior draft boards
Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.
1.01+95
Todd Gurley
jonah
1.02-82
David Johnson
Spencer
1.03-79
Le'Veon Bell
Ethan
1.04-45
Antonio Brown
Zach
1.05+57
Alvin Kamara
Coby
1.06+53
DeAndre Hopkins
joshua
1.07+62
Ezekiel Elliott
evan
1.08-56
Odell Beckham Jr.
Max
1.09-9
Saquon Barkley
oren
1.10+27
Kareem Hunt
Aidan
2.01+57
Michael Thomas
Aidan
2.02-37
Julio Jones
oren
2.03-60
Leonard Fournette
Max
2.04+47
Melvin Gordon III
evan
2.05+29
Keenan Allen
joshua
2.06-51
Davante Adams
Coby
2.07+100
Christian McCaffrey
Zach
2.08-50
Mike Evans
Ethan
2.09-8
A.J. Green
Spencer
2.10+96
Travis Kelce
jonah
3.01+72
Tyreek Hill
jonah
3.02-45
Jordan Howard
Spencer
3.03-44
T.Y. Hilton
Ethan
3.04-14
Rob Gronkowski
Zach
3.05-44
Dalvin Cook
Coby
3.06+69
Adam Thielen
joshua
3.07+43
Stefon Diggs
evan
3.08-42
Devonta Freeman
Max
3.09-18
JuJu Smith-Schuster
oren
3.10+21
Amari Cooper
Aidan
4.01-7
Jarvis Landry
Aidan
4.02-41
LeSean McCoy
oren
4.03-38
Larry Fitzgerald
Max
4.04-34
Doug Baldwin
evan
4.05-31
Kenyan Drake
joshua
4.06-38
Alex Collins
Coby
4.07+4
Golden Tate
Zach
4.08-2
Aaron Rodgers
Ethan
4.09+10
Deshaun Watson
Spencer
4.10-12
Josh Gordon
jonah
5.01-10
Demaryius Thomas
jonah
5.02-21
Allen Robinson
Spencer
5.03-27
Lamar Miller
Ethan
5.04-11
Tom Brady
Zach
5.05-9
Marvin Jones Jr.
Coby
5.06+40
Drew Brees
joshua
5.07+71
Zach Ertz
evan
5.08-25
Chris Hogan
Max
5.09+20
Joe Mixon
oren
5.10-23
Jimmy Graham
Aidan
6.01-28
Derrick Henry
Aidan
6.02-25
Russell Wilson
oren
6.03-27
Marquise Goodwin
Max
6.04+34
Brandin Cooks
evan
6.05-26
Royce Freeman
joshua
6.06-27
Corey Davis
Coby
6.07-3
Emmanuel Sanders
Zach
6.08-26
Jamison Crowder
Ethan
6.09-9
Mark Ingram II
Spencer
6.10-20
Jay Ajayi
jonah
7.01+21
Cooper Kupp
jonah
7.02-20
Devin Funchess
Spencer
7.03-25
Rex Burkhead
Ethan
7.04-14
Greg Olsen
Zach
7.05-16
Nelson Agholor
Coby
7.06-23
Evan Engram
joshua
7.07-15
Dion Lewis
evan
7.08-22
Alfred Morris
Max
7.09-22
Michael Crabtree
oren
7.10-21
Cam Newton
Aidan
8.01+26
Robert Woods
Aidan
8.02-14
Kyle Rudolph
oren
8.03-21
Jimmy Garoppolo
Max
8.04-1
Will Fuller V
evan
8.05-21
Robbie Chosen
joshua
8.06-19
Delanie Walker
Coby
8.07+3
Alshon Jeffery
Zach
8.08+7
Trey Burton
Ethan
8.09-19
Peyton Barber
Spencer
8.10-11
Carlos Hyde
jonah
9.01+21
Kirk Cousins
jonah
9.02-18
Keelan Cole Sr.
Spencer
9.03+2
Sterling Shepard
Ethan
9.04-10
Adrian Peterson
Zach
9.05+8
Tevin Coleman
Coby
9.06+7
Jordan Reed
joshua
9.07-17
Ronald Jones
evan
9.08-17
Sammy Watkins
Max
9.09-16
Chris Carson
oren
9.10+108
Patrick Mahomes
Aidan
10.01-16
David Njoku
Aidan
10.02-16
Jordy Nelson
oren
10.03-16
Kerryon Johnson
Max
10.04-4
Sony Michel
evan
10.05+40
Julian Edelman
joshua
10.06+1
Tyler Lockett
Coby
10.07-14
Jamaal Williams
Zach
10.08-14
Duke Johnson
Ethan
10.09-7
Jaguars
Spencer
10.10-9
Marshawn Lynch
jonah
11.01-14
Pierre Garcon
jonah
11.02-4
Chris Thompson
Spencer
11.03+50
Tarik Cohen
Ethan
11.04+26
Rams
Zach
11.05+23
Ben Roethlisberger
Coby
11.06+46
Vikings
joshua
11.07-12
DeVante Parker
evan
11.08-8
Jack Doyle
Max
11.09-9
Carson Wentz
oren
11.10-12
Isaiah Crowell
Aidan
12.01-10
Eagles
Aidan
12.02+48
George Kittle
oren
12.03-11
Aaron Jones Sr.
Max
12.04-11
Mike Williams
evan
12.05-11
Kenny Stills
joshua
12.06-11
Chris Godwin Jr.
Coby
12.07-11
Allen Hurns
Zach
12.08-10
Rishard Matthews
Ethan
12.09-10
Josh Doctson
Spencer
12.10-10
Cameron Meredith
jonah
13.01+16
Chargers
jonah
13.02-9
Rashaad Penny
Spencer
13.03-9
DJ Moore
Ethan
13.04-9
Matthew Stafford
Zach
13.05-9
James White
Coby
13.06-9
Bilal Powell
joshua
13.07+16
Jared Goff
evan
13.08-7
Saints
Max
13.09-9
Kelvin Benjamin
oren
13.10+11
Kenny Golladay
Aidan
14.01+4
Matt Breida
Aidan
14.02-9
Randall Cobb
oren
14.03+1
Marlon Mack
Max
14.04-8
Broncos
evan
14.05+32
Greg Zuerlein
joshua
14.06+29
Justin Tucker
Coby
14.07+21
Stephen Gostkowski
Zach
14.08-8
Texans
Ethan
14.09-8
Daniel Carlson
Spencer
14.10+12
O.J. Howard
jonah
15.01+8
Matt Bryant
jonah
15.02+18
Calvin Ridley
Spencer
15.03+31
Wil Lutz
Ethan
15.04-8
Anthony Miller
Zach
15.05+98
James Conner
Coby
15.06-8
James Washington
joshua
15.07-7
Jake Elliott
evan
15.08+24
Mason Crosby
Max
15.09-8
Chris Boswell
oren
15.10+21
Harrison Butker
Aidan
16.01-8
Kevin White
Aidan
16.02+14
Ravens
oren
16.03-8
Dede Westbrook
Max
16.04-8
Mohamed Sanu
evan
16.05+12
Latavius Murray
joshua
16.06+10
Andrew Luck
Coby
16.07-8
Nick Chubb
Zach
16.08-8
John Ross
Ethan
16.09-8
Hunter Henry
Spencer
16.10-8
Dez Bryant
jonah
03
Evidence
The year-end receipts
2023
Best drafters in the league
- 01jonahA+
- 02dylanA
- 03AidanA-
- 04ZachB+
- 05LewisB
- 06TylerB-
- 07EthanC+
- 08evanC
- 09CobyC-
- 10MaxD+
- 11orenD
- 12SpencerF
2023
League superlatives
The Oracle
jonah
Best draft grade · A+ · +12.4/pick
The Sniper
Max
Best single pick over slot · Christian McCaffrey +90.9
Bargain Hunter
dylan
Most value from rounds 10+ · +83
Boom or Bust
evan
Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 27
Steady Hand
Spencer
Most consistent picks · σ 16
Dead Money
Tyler
Worst first-round return · −50
Draft day → final standings
Does the draft decide anything?
r = +0.57
Draft day decides this league. Based on 102 team-seasons.
Season by season
Best draft vs the champion's draft
| Season | Best draft | Finished | Champion's draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Aidan (A+) | 3rd | Coby (draft #2 of 12) |
| 2024 | Lewis (A+) | 5th | Ethan (draft #5 of 12) |
| 2023 | jonah (A+) | 6th | Max (draft #10 of 12) |
| 2022 | Spencer (A+) | 1st | Spencer (draft #1 of 12) |
| 2021 | Lewis (A+) | 2nd | Tyler (draft #4 of 12) |
| 2019 | Spencer (A+) | 1st | Spencer (draft #1 of 12) |
| 2018 | jonah (A+) | 1st | jonah (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2017 | joshua (A+) | 1st | joshua (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2016 | jonah (A+) | 2nd | Lewis (draft #7 of 10) |
04
Scouting archive
How this room drafts
Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).
| Manager | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 | R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| oren | WR | RB | RB | QB | WR | TE | WR | RB | WR | RB | RB | WR | TE | K | DEF | RB |
| Coby | WR | WR | WR | QB | TE | RB | RB | RB | WR | RB | WR | RB | TE | K | QB | QB |
| evan | TE | WR | WR | RB | RB | WR | WR | QB | WR | DEF | QB | WR | RB | K | RB | RB |
| Max | RB | RB | WR | RB | WR | QB | RB | RB | RB | RB | TE | WR | WR | WR | WR | DEF |
| dylan | WR | WR | QB | RB | RB | WR | WR | TE | RB | WR | RB | WR | DEF | K | WR | WR |
| Zach | RB | WR | QB | RB | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | WR | DEF | K | WR | RB | TE | WR |
| jonah | RB | RB | WR | WR | WR | TE | RB | WR | QB | WR | DEF | WR | RB | K | TE | QB |
| Ethan | WR | WR | QB | RB | TE | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | RB | WR | WR | TE | K |
| Tyler | RB | RB | WR | QB | WR | WR | RB | WR | TE | DEF | RB | TE | WR | QB | K | RB |
| Aidan | RB | WR | WR | QB | WR | RB | TE | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | K | WR | WR | DEF |
| Lewis | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | RB | WR | QB | WR | WR | WR | WR | QB | K | DEF | RB |
| Spencer | WR | WR | RB | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | WR | RB | WR | QB | RB | RB | DEF | WR |
All drafts on record
League draft meta
| Position | Avg first off the board | Median pick | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | pick 30 (≈ R3) | 85 | 21–192 |
| RB | pick 2 (≈ R1) | 76 | 1–192 |
| WR | pick 3 (≈ R1) | 81 | 1–191 |
| TE | pick 17 (≈ R2) | 90 | 3–192 |
| K | pick 125 (≈ R11) | 156 | 96–192 |
| DEF | pick 110 (≈ R10) | 144 | 84–191 |