The archive · process meets outcome

Draft History

Draft archive9 drafts graded2016–2025 · Snake

1,824Picks

Last year Last 3 years All time

A+

jonah

2023 · 16 graded picks

#1 of 12

drafters

Hit rate

69%

beat the slot

Smashes

25%

top 15% picks

Busts

bottom 20%

Draft surplus

+198

useful pts

Per pick

+12.4

Best pick

+84

DJ Moore

Diagnosis

jonah's drafting profile

Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.

How jonah gets better

The film room

The DJ Moore read

Taken at pick 55 in 2023, he returned +84.1 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.

TE is your money position

2 TE picks returned 2.41× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.

RB is your blind spot

4 RB picks returned 74% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.

The early rounds are leaking

Rounds 1–4 came in −1 under expectation (75% hit rate). That's where leagues are won and lost.

Late-round sniper

Rounds 10+ returned +39 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.

Khalil Herbert still hurts

Pick 79 in 2023 came in −18.9 under the slot.

Return on draft capital

Where you hit, where you miss

2.38×

2 picks · 100% beat slot

0.74×

4 picks · 25% beat slot

1.83×

6 picks · 67% beat slot

2.41×

2 picks · 100% beat slot

3.92×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

DEF

4.83×

1 picks · 100% beat slot

Early (R1–4)

−1

4 picks · 75% hit

Mid (R5–9)

+160

5 picks · 80% hit

Late (R10+)

+39

7 picks · 57% hit

Signature steals

The picks that won

DJ Moore

2023 · Rd 5 · pick 55 · 110.5 useful vs 26.4 expected

+84

Jordan Addison

2023 · Rd 8 · pick 90 · 55.3 useful vs 16.0 expected

+39

George Kittle

2023 · Rd 6 · pick 66 · 61.4 useful vs 23.2 expected

+38

The ones that haunt

The picks that didn't

Khalil Herbert

2023 · Rd 7 · pick 79 · 0.0 useful vs 18.9 expected

−19

Skyy Moore

2023 · Rd 10 · pick 114 · 0.0 useful vs 11.1 expected

−11

Bijan Robinson

2023 · Rd 1 · pick 7 · 51.2 useful vs 60.0 expected

−9

The room

Prior draft boards

Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.

1.01+50

Jahmyr Gibbs

Tyler

1.02+4

Bijan Robinson

dylan

1.03+19

Ja'Marr Chase

oren

1.04+6

Christian McCaffrey

Lewis

1.05-40

Puka Nacua

Ethan

1.06+11

Jonathan Taylor

Aidan

1.07+98

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

jonah

1.08+30

Amon-Ra St. Brown

Max

1.09+57

CeeDee Lamb

evan

1.10-23

Chase Brown

Coby

1.11+10

James Cook III

Zach

1.12-5

Justin Jefferson

Spencer

2.01-35

Saquon Barkley

Spencer

2.02+38

Kenneth Walker III

Zach

2.03-24

Omarion Hampton

Coby

2.04-31

De'Von Achane

evan

2.05-4

Derrick Henry

Max

2.06-28

A.J. Brown

jonah

2.07+4

Nico Collins

Aidan

2.08-2

DeVonta Smith

Ethan

2.09+1

Ashton Jeanty

Lewis

2.10+27

Brock Bowers

oren

2.11-2

George Pickens

dylan

2.12+24

Chris Olave

Tyler

3.01-9

Malik Nabers

Tyler

3.02+14

Drake London

dylan

3.03-26

Rashee Rice

oren

3.04+34

Zay Flowers

Lewis

3.05-19

Kyren Williams

Ethan

3.06+35

Trey McBride

Aidan

3.07-15

Jeremiyah Love

jonah

3.08-23

Javonte Williams

Max

3.09+33

Josh Allen

evan

3.10-5

Jaylen Waddle

Coby

3.11+48

Tee Higgins

Zach

3.12-22

Travis Etienne Jr.

Spencer

4.01-11

Ladd McConkey

Spencer

4.02+20

Garrett Wilson

Zach

4.03-11

Emeka Egbuka

Coby

4.04-3

DJ Moore

evan

4.05-18

D'Andre Swift

Max

4.06-10

Breece Hall

jonah

4.07+27

Tetairoa McMillan

Aidan

4.08+1

Colston Loveland

Ethan

4.09+17

Luther Burden III

Lewis

4.10-16

Tyler Warren

oren

4.11-16

Jadarian Price

dylan

4.12-16

Cam Skattebo

Tyler

5.01+24

Bucky Irving

Tyler

5.02-16

Terry McLaurin

dylan

5.03-10

Rome Odunze

oren

5.04+22

Davante Adams

Lewis

5.05+23

Bhayshul Tuten

Ethan

5.06+13

Jameson Williams

Aidan

5.07+22

Parker Washington

jonah

5.08-1

David Montgomery

Max

5.09+12

Mike Evans

evan

5.10-5

Rhamondre Stevenson

Coby

5.11+49

Christian Watson

Zach

5.12-3

Quinshon Judkins

Spencer

6.01-14

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Spencer

6.02-8

Lamar Jackson

Zach

6.03+1

Tucker Kraft

Coby

6.04+26

Jaylen Warren

evan

6.05-13

Joe Burrow

Max

6.06+3

Drake Maye

jonah

6.07-13

TreVeyon Henderson

Aidan

6.08+7

Caleb Williams

Ethan

6.09-12

Carnell Tate

Lewis

6.10-12

MarShawn Lloyd

oren

6.11-12

Chris Godwin Jr.

dylan

6.12-12

DK Metcalf

Tyler

7.01+14

Harold Fannin Jr.

Tyler

7.02-12

Jonathon Brooks

dylan

7.03-12

Quentin Johnston

oren

7.04-6

Jalen Hurts

Lewis

7.05+23

Michael Wilson

Ethan

7.06+4

Tony Pollard

Aidan

7.07-11

Alec Pierce

jonah

7.08-11

Brian Thomas Jr.

Max

7.09-7

Kyle Pitts Sr.

evan

7.10-10

Josh Downs

Coby

7.11+26

George Kittle

Zach

7.12-10

Justin Herbert

Spencer

8.01-10

Courtland Sutton

Spencer

8.02-10

Jordan Mason

Zach

8.03-7

Jayden Daniels

Coby

8.04+11

Sam LaPorta

evan

8.05-9

Matthew Golden

Max

8.06+36

Chuba Hubbard

jonah

8.07+3

Stefon Diggs

Aidan

8.08-9

Michael Pittman Jr.

Ethan

8.09-9

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Lewis

8.10-9

De'Zhaun Stribling

oren

8.11-8

Jayden Reed

dylan

8.12-5

Wan'Dale Robinson

Tyler

9.01+5

Josh Jacobs

Tyler

9.02-8

Blake Corum

dylan

9.03-8

KC Concepcion Jr.

oren

9.04+15

Dalton Kincaid

Lewis

9.05-8

Kenny Gainwell

Ethan

9.06-4

J.K. Dobbins

Aidan

9.07+2

Makai Lemon

jonah

9.08-7

RJ Harvey

Max

9.09-1

Rachaad White

evan

9.10-7

Rico Dowdle

Coby

9.11-5

Jakobi Meyers

Zach

9.12+45

Isaiah Likely

Spencer

10.01+7

Romeo Doubs

Spencer

10.02+8

Dallas Goedert

Zach

10.03-7

Jordan Addison

Coby

10.04+5

Kyle Monangai

evan

10.05-6

Jordyn Tyson

Max

10.06+8

Travis Kelce

jonah

10.07+12

Dak Prescott

Aidan

10.08-3

Xavier Worthy

Ethan

10.09-6

Mark Andrews

Lewis

10.10-6

Mike Washington Jr.

oren

10.11+10

Trevor Lawrence

dylan

10.12+27

Jalen Coker

Tyler

11.01-6

Woody Marks

Tyler

11.02+3

Rams

dylan

11.03-5

Zach Charbonnet

oren

11.04-5

Rashid Shaheed

Lewis

11.05-5

Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Ethan

11.06-2

Khalil Shakir

Aidan

11.07-5

Tyler Allgeier

jonah

11.08-5

Keaton Mitchell

Max

11.09-5

Jaxson Dart

evan

11.10-5

Tyjae Spears

Coby

11.11+9

Jason Myers

Zach

11.12-5

Jake Ferguson

Spencer

12.01-5

Ja'Kobi Lane

Spencer

12.02+2

Texans

Zach

12.03-5

Juwan Johnson

Coby

12.04+19

Brandon Aubrey

evan

12.05+9

Patrick Mahomes

Max

12.06+10

Broncos

jonah

12.07+2

Aaron Jones Sr.

Aidan

12.08-5

Brian Robinson Jr.

Ethan

12.09+6

Deebo Samuel Sr.

Lewis

12.10+19

Seahawks

oren

12.11-5

Denzel Boston

dylan

12.12+16

Ka'imi Fairbairn

Tyler

13.01-5

Brenton Strange

Tyler

13.02-5

Terrance Ferguson

dylan

13.03-4

Cameron Dicker

oren

13.04+1

Keenan Allen

Lewis

13.05-4

Dontayvion Wicks

Ethan

13.06-5

Cooper Kupp

Aidan

13.07+3

Cam Little

jonah

13.08-3

Adonai Mitchell

Max

13.09+21

Tre Tucker

evan

13.10-5

Ray Davis

Coby

13.11-5

Kayshon Boutte

Zach

13.12-5

Tank Bigsby

Spencer

14.01+7

Alvin Kamara

Spencer

14.02-5

Emmett Johnson

Zach

14.03-5

Cyrus Allen

Coby

14.04-4

Eagles

evan

14.05+3

Jonah Coleman

Max

14.06+15

Braelon Allen

jonah

14.07-4

Caleb Douglas

Aidan

14.08-4

Malik Davis

Ethan

14.09-4

Kaelon Black

Lewis

14.10-4

Malachi Fields

oren

14.11-4

Jalen Nailor

dylan

14.12+18

Steelers

Tyler

15.01-4

Kimani Vidal

Tyler

15.02-4

Will Reichard

dylan

15.03-4

Kenyon Sadiq

oren

15.04+2

Lions

Lewis

15.05-3

Travis Hunter

Ethan

15.06-3

Tank Dell

Aidan

15.07-3

Isaac TeSlaa

jonah

15.08-4

Malik Washington

Max

15.09-4

Jalen McMillan

evan

15.10-3

Ryan Flournoy

Coby

15.11-3

Dylan Sampson

Zach

15.12-3

Harrison Mevis

Spencer

16.01-1

Patriots

Spencer

16.02-3

Chris Bell

Zach

16.03-3

Tyler Loop

Coby

16.04-3

Ricky Pearsall

evan

16.05-3

Jaylin Noel

Max

16.06+10

Brock Purdy

jonah

16.07+19

Jaguars

Aidan

16.08+15

Evan McPherson

Ethan

16.09+3

Jake Bates

Lewis

16.10-3

Matthew Stafford

oren

16.11-3

Jerry Jeudy

dylan

16.12-3

Kyler Murray

Tyler

Evidence

The year-end receipts

2023

Best drafters in the league

01jonah
A+
02dylan
A
03Aidan
A-
04Zach
B+
05Lewis
B
06Tyler
B-
07Ethan
C+
08evan
C
09Coby
C-
10Max
D+
11oren
D
12Spencer
F

2023

League superlatives

The Oracle

jonah

Best draft grade · A+ · +12.4/pick

The Sniper

Max

Best single pick over slot · Christian McCaffrey +90.9

Bargain Hunter

dylan

Most value from rounds 10+ · +83

Boom or Bust

evan

Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 27

Steady Hand

Spencer

Most consistent picks · σ 16

Dead Money

Tyler

Worst first-round return · −50

Draft day → final standings

Does the draft decide anything?

r = +0.57

Draft day decides this league. Based on 102 team-seasons.

Season by season

Best draft vs the champion's draft

Season	Best draft	Finished	Champion's draft
2025	Aidan (A+)	3rd	Coby (draft #2 of 12)
2024	Lewis (A+)	5th	Ethan (draft #5 of 12)
2023	jonah (A+)	6th	Max (draft #10 of 12)
2022	Spencer (A+)	1st	Spencer (draft #1 of 12)
2021	Lewis (A+)	2nd	Tyler (draft #4 of 12)
2019	Spencer (A+)	1st	Spencer (draft #1 of 12)
2018	jonah (A+)	1st	jonah (draft #1 of 10)
2017	joshua (A+)	1st	joshua (draft #1 of 10)
2016	jonah (A+)	2nd	Lewis (draft #7 of 10)

Scouting archive

How this room drafts

Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).

Manager	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16
oren	WR	RB	RB	QB	WR	TE	WR	RB	WR	RB	RB	WR	TE	K	DEF	RB
Coby	WR	WR	WR	QB	TE	RB	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	RB	TE	K	QB	QB
evan	TE	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	DEF	QB	WR	RB	K	RB	RB
Max	RB	RB	WR	RB	WR	QB	RB	RB	RB	RB	TE	WR	WR	WR	WR	DEF
dylan	WR	WR	QB	RB	RB	WR	WR	TE	RB	WR	RB	WR	DEF	K	WR	WR
Zach	RB	WR	QB	RB	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	WR	DEF	K	WR	RB	TE	WR
jonah	RB	RB	WR	WR	WR	TE	RB	WR	QB	WR	DEF	WR	RB	K	TE	QB
Ethan	WR	WR	QB	RB	TE	RB	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	WR	TE	K
Tyler	RB	RB	WR	QB	WR	WR	RB	WR	TE	DEF	RB	TE	WR	QB	K	RB
Aidan	RB	WR	WR	QB	WR	RB	TE	WR	RB	WR	WR	RB	K	WR	WR	DEF
Lewis	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	RB	WR	QB	WR	WR	WR	WR	QB	K	DEF	RB
Spencer	WR	WR	RB	RB	WR	RB	TE	WR	WR	RB	WR	QB	RB	RB	DEF	WR

All drafts on record

League draft meta

Position	Avg first off the board	Median pick	Range
QB	pick 30 (≈ R3)	85	21–192
RB	pick 2 (≈ R1)	76	1–192
WR	pick 3 (≈ R1)	81	1–191
TE	pick 17 (≈ R2)	90	3–192
K	pick 125 (≈ R11)	156	96–192
DEF	pick 110 (≈ R10)	144	84–191