The archive · process meets outcome
Draft History
Draft archive9 drafts graded2016–2025 · Snake
1,824Picks
A+
jonah
2023 · 16 graded picks
#1 of 12
drafters
Hit rate
69%
beat the slot
Smashes
25%
top 15% picks
Busts
6%
bottom 20%
Draft surplus
+198
useful pts
Per pick
+12.4
Best pick
+84
DJ Moore
01
Diagnosis
jonah's drafting profile
Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.
How jonah gets better
The film room
The DJ Moore read
Taken at pick 55 in 2023, he returned +84.1 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.
TE is your money position
2 TE picks returned 2.41× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.
RB is your blind spot
4 RB picks returned 74% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.
The early rounds are leaking
Rounds 1–4 came in −1 under expectation (75% hit rate). That's where leagues are won and lost.
Late-round sniper
Rounds 10+ returned +39 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.
Khalil Herbert still hurts
Pick 79 in 2023 came in −18.9 under the slot.
Return on draft capital
Where you hit, where you miss
QB
2.38×
2 picks · 100% beat slot
RB
0.74×
4 picks · 25% beat slot
WR
1.83×
6 picks · 67% beat slot
TE
2.41×
2 picks · 100% beat slot
K
3.92×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
DEF
4.83×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
Early (R1–4)
−1
4 picks · 75% hit
Mid (R5–9)
+160
5 picks · 80% hit
Late (R10+)
+39
7 picks · 57% hit
Signature steals
The picks that won
WR+84
DJ Moore
2023 · Rd 5 · pick 55 · 110.5 useful vs 26.4 expected
WR+39
Jordan Addison
2023 · Rd 8 · pick 90 · 55.3 useful vs 16.0 expected
TE+38
George Kittle
2023 · Rd 6 · pick 66 · 61.4 useful vs 23.2 expected
The ones that haunt
The picks that didn't
RB−19
Khalil Herbert
2023 · Rd 7 · pick 79 · 0.0 useful vs 18.9 expected
WR−11
Skyy Moore
2023 · Rd 10 · pick 114 · 0.0 useful vs 11.1 expected
RB−9
Bijan Robinson
2023 · Rd 1 · pick 7 · 51.2 useful vs 60.0 expected
02
The room
Prior draft boards
Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.
1.01-68
Saquon Barkley
Max
1.02+166
Christian McCaffrey
Coby
1.03-8
Alvin Kamara
jonah
1.04-15
Ezekiel Elliott
Lewis
1.05-46
DeAndre Hopkins
Aidan
1.06-62
Davante Adams
oren
1.07-59
Julio Jones
Ethan
1.08-33
Odell Beckham Jr.
joshua
1.09-38
David Johnson
A.J.
1.10-38
Le'Veon Bell
evan
1.11+130
Michael Thomas
Spencer
1.12+19
Travis Kelce
Zach
2.01-60
James Conner
Zach
2.02-39
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Spencer
2.03-14
Dalvin Cook
evan
2.04-56
Tyreek Hill
A.J.
2.05-53
Antonio Brown
joshua
2.06-11
Joe Mixon
Ethan
2.07+16
Nick Chubb
oren
2.08-45
Damien Williams
Aidan
2.09+3
Patrick Mahomes
Lewis
2.10+56
Mike Evans
jonah
2.11+26
Keenan Allen
Coby
2.12-32
Zach Ertz
Max
3.01-44
Adam Thielen
Max
3.02-44
Stefon Diggs
Coby
3.03+24
George Kittle
jonah
3.04-9
Todd Gurley
Lewis
3.05+4
Aaron Jones Sr.
Aidan
3.06-35
Amari Cooper
oren
3.07-37
Kerryon Johnson
Ethan
3.08+38
Julian Edelman
joshua
3.09-27
Brandin Cooks
A.J.
3.10-37
Robert Woods
evan
3.11+30
Leonard Fournette
Spencer
3.12+45
Chris Godwin Jr.
Zach
4.01-9
Melvin Gordon III
Zach
4.02-5
Derrick Henry
Spencer
4.03-14
Devonta Freeman
evan
4.04+12
Chris Carson
A.J.
4.05-17
Sony Michel
joshua
4.06+69
Deshaun Watson
Ethan
4.07-17
Marlon Mack
oren
4.08+29
Mark Ingram II
Aidan
4.09+2
T.Y. Hilton
Lewis
4.10-4
David Montgomery
jonah
4.11-28
Tyler Lockett
Coby
4.12+11
Aaron Rodgers
Max
5.01-5
Cooper Kupp
Max
5.02-28
Josh Jacobs
Coby
5.03+62
Kenny Golladay
jonah
5.04+12
Evan Engram
Lewis
5.05+4
Tyler Boyd
Aidan
5.06-17
Mike Williams
oren
5.07-26
Robbie Chosen
Ethan
5.08-27
Baker Mayfield
joshua
5.09+34
Calvin Ridley
A.J.
5.10-26
Hunter Henry
evan
5.11+41
Jarvis Landry
Spencer
5.12-25
Dede Westbrook
Zach
6.01+27
DJ Moore
Zach
6.02-24
A.J. Green
Spencer
6.03-21
Josh Gordon
evan
6.04-23
O.J. Howard
A.J.
6.05-17
James White
joshua
6.06+20
Will Fuller V
Ethan
6.07-19
Allen Robinson
oren
6.08-21
Jared Cook
Aidan
6.09+16
Alshon Jeffery
Lewis
6.10+20
Christian Kirk
jonah
6.11-20
Duke Johnson
Coby
6.12-20
Tevin Coleman
Max
7.01-11
Phillip Lindsay
Max
7.02+53
Austin Ekeler
Coby
7.03+27
Matt Ryan
jonah
7.04-9
Corey Davis
Lewis
7.05-4
Carson Wentz
Aidan
7.06-19
Russell Wilson
oren
7.07-19
Tarik Cohen
Ethan
7.08-18
David Njoku
joshua
7.09+4
Curtis Samuel
A.J.
7.10-18
Sammy Watkins
evan
7.11+52
Drew Brees
Spencer
7.12+11
Bears
Zach
8.01+14
Lamar Jackson
Zach
8.02+44
Kenyan Drake
Spencer
8.03-17
Sterling Shepard
evan
8.04-17
Cam Newton
A.J.
8.05+8
Vikings
joshua
8.06-16
Vance McDonald
Ethan
8.07+0
Austin Hooper
oren
8.08+42
Marvin Jones Jr.
Aidan
8.09+25
Emmanuel Sanders
Lewis
8.10+11
Miles Sanders
jonah
8.11-15
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Coby
8.12-14
Derrius Guice
Max
9.01-3
Larry Fitzgerald
Max
9.02-14
Rashaad Penny
Coby
9.03+34
Latavius Murray
jonah
9.04-2
Matt Breida
Lewis
9.05-14
Dante Pettis
Aidan
9.06-14
Jordan Howard
oren
9.07-13
Donte Moncrief
Ethan
9.08+9
DeSean Jackson
joshua
9.09+8
Michael Gallup
A.J.
9.10-11
Jared Goff
evan
9.11-7
Courtland Sutton
Spencer
9.12-10
Devin Singletary
Zach
10.01+9
Golden Tate
Zach
10.02+59
Mark Andrews
Spencer
10.03-12
Darrell Henderson Jr.
evan
10.04-3
Royce Freeman
A.J.
10.05+19
Greg Zuerlein
joshua
10.06+4
Rams
Ethan
10.07-11
Geronimo Allison
oren
10.08+6
Jamison Crowder
Aidan
10.09-11
Tre'Quan Smith
Lewis
10.10-9
Keke Coutee
jonah
10.11-10
Jameis Winston
Coby
10.12-10
Peyton Barber
Max
11.01-9
Tyrell Williams
Max
11.02+27
John Brown
Coby
11.03-9
Eric Ebron
jonah
11.04+29
Seahawks
Lewis
11.05-9
Darwin Thompson
Aidan
11.06-9
Anthony Miller
oren
11.07-9
Ronald Jones
Ethan
11.08-1
Kareem Hunt
joshua
11.09+10
Jaguars
A.J.
11.10-6
Hollywood Brown
evan
11.11-9
Kalen Ballage
Spencer
11.12-9
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Zach
12.01-9
Ito Smith
Zach
12.02-9
Dion Lewis
Spencer
12.03-8
Mohamed Sanu
evan
12.04-9
Kyle Rudolph
A.J.
12.05-8
James Washington
joshua
12.06-8
DaeSean Hamilton
Ethan
12.07-8
Marquise Goodwin
oren
12.08-8
T.J. Hockenson
Aidan
12.09+28
Justin Tucker
Lewis
12.10+6
Chargers
jonah
12.11-9
Tony Pollard
Coby
12.12+4
Browns
Max
13.01-8
Kyler Murray
Max
13.02+2
Delanie Walker
Coby
13.03+44
Harrison Butker
jonah
13.04-8
Nyheim Miller-Hines
Lewis
13.05-4
Ravens
Aidan
13.06-8
Ka'imi Fairbairn
oren
13.07-6
Adrian Peterson
Ethan
13.08+11
Greg Olsen
joshua
13.09+15
Wil Lutz
A.J.
13.10-8
Jaylen Samuels
evan
13.11-8
Parris Campbell
Spencer
13.12+2
Stephen Gostkowski
Zach
14.01-8
N'Keal Harry
Zach
14.02+121
Patriots
Spencer
14.03-7
Saints
evan
14.04-8
Adam Humphries
A.J.
14.05+3
LeSean McCoy
joshua
14.06-7
Kenny Stills
Ethan
14.07-7
DK Metcalf
oren
14.08-7
Justice Hill
Aidan
14.09-7
Jordan Reed
Lewis
14.10-7
Devin Funchess
jonah
14.11-7
Trey Burton
Coby
14.12-7
Chris Thompson
Max
15.01-7
Zay Jones
Max
15.02-6
Eagles
Coby
15.03-6
Philip Rivers
jonah
15.04-6
Justin Jackson
Lewis
15.05-3
Jake Elliott
Aidan
15.06-6
Jack Doyle
oren
15.07+56
Darren Waller
Ethan
15.08-6
Ian Thomas
joshua
15.09-3
Jamaal Williams
A.J.
15.10-6
Nelson Agholor
evan
15.11-6
Ben Roethlisberger
Spencer
15.12-6
Mecole Hardman Jr.
Zach
16.01-5
Rob Gronkowski
Zach
16.02-5
Jason Myers
Spencer
16.03-5
Mason Crosby
evan
16.04-5
Ted Ginn Jr.
A.J.
16.05-5
Marqise Lee
joshua
16.06-5
Michael Badgley
Ethan
16.07-5
Texans
oren
16.08-5
Demaryius Thomas
Aidan
16.09+17
Randall Cobb
Lewis
16.10-5
Jason Witten
jonah
16.11-5
Brett Maher
Coby
16.12-4
Aldrick Rosas
Max
03
Evidence
The year-end receipts
2023
Best drafters in the league
- 01jonahA+
- 02dylanA
- 03AidanA-
- 04ZachB+
- 05LewisB
- 06TylerB-
- 07EthanC+
- 08evanC
- 09CobyC-
- 10MaxD+
- 11orenD
- 12SpencerF
2023
League superlatives
The Oracle
jonah
Best draft grade · A+ · +12.4/pick
The Sniper
Max
Best single pick over slot · Christian McCaffrey +90.9
Bargain Hunter
dylan
Most value from rounds 10+ · +83
Boom or Bust
evan
Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 27
Steady Hand
Spencer
Most consistent picks · σ 16
Dead Money
Tyler
Worst first-round return · −50
Draft day → final standings
Does the draft decide anything?
r = +0.57
Draft day decides this league. Based on 102 team-seasons.
Season by season
Best draft vs the champion's draft
| Season | Best draft | Finished | Champion's draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Aidan (A+) | 3rd | Coby (draft #2 of 12) |
| 2024 | Lewis (A+) | 5th | Ethan (draft #5 of 12) |
| 2023 | jonah (A+) | 6th | Max (draft #10 of 12) |
| 2022 | Spencer (A+) | 1st | Spencer (draft #1 of 12) |
| 2021 | Lewis (A+) | 2nd | Tyler (draft #4 of 12) |
| 2019 | Spencer (A+) | 1st | Spencer (draft #1 of 12) |
| 2018 | jonah (A+) | 1st | jonah (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2017 | joshua (A+) | 1st | joshua (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2016 | jonah (A+) | 2nd | Lewis (draft #7 of 10) |
04
Scouting archive
How this room drafts
Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).
| Manager | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 | R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| oren | WR | RB | RB | QB | WR | TE | WR | RB | WR | RB | RB | WR | TE | K | DEF | RB |
| Coby | WR | WR | WR | QB | TE | RB | RB | RB | WR | RB | WR | RB | TE | K | QB | QB |
| evan | TE | WR | WR | RB | RB | WR | WR | QB | WR | DEF | QB | WR | RB | K | RB | RB |
| Max | RB | RB | WR | RB | WR | QB | RB | RB | RB | RB | TE | WR | WR | WR | WR | DEF |
| dylan | WR | WR | QB | RB | RB | WR | WR | TE | RB | WR | RB | WR | DEF | K | WR | WR |
| Zach | RB | WR | QB | RB | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | WR | DEF | K | WR | RB | TE | WR |
| jonah | RB | RB | WR | WR | WR | TE | RB | WR | QB | WR | DEF | WR | RB | K | TE | QB |
| Ethan | WR | WR | QB | RB | TE | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | RB | WR | WR | TE | K |
| Tyler | RB | RB | WR | QB | WR | WR | RB | WR | TE | DEF | RB | TE | WR | QB | K | RB |
| Aidan | RB | WR | WR | QB | WR | RB | TE | WR | RB | WR | WR | RB | K | WR | WR | DEF |
| Lewis | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | RB | WR | QB | WR | WR | WR | WR | QB | K | DEF | RB |
| Spencer | WR | WR | RB | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | WR | RB | WR | QB | RB | RB | DEF | WR |
All drafts on record
League draft meta
| Position | Avg first off the board | Median pick | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | pick 30 (≈ R3) | 85 | 21–192 |
| RB | pick 2 (≈ R1) | 76 | 1–192 |
| WR | pick 3 (≈ R1) | 81 | 1–191 |
| TE | pick 17 (≈ R2) | 90 | 3–192 |
| K | pick 125 (≈ R11) | 156 | 96–192 |
| DEF | pick 110 (≈ R10) | 144 | 84–191 |