The archive · process meets outcome
Draft History
Draft archive9 drafts graded2016–2025 · Snake
1,824Picks
A+
Lewis
2021 · 16 graded picks
#1 of 12
drafters
Hit rate
56%
beat the slot
Smashes
31%
top 15% picks
Busts
13%
bottom 20%
Draft surplus
+336
useful pts
Per pick
+21.0
Best pick
+112
Deebo Samuel Sr.
01
Diagnosis
Lewis's drafting profile
Value = useful started points the pick gave the team that drafted him. Expected = what that pick slot has historically returned in this league.
How Lewis gets better
The film room
The Deebo Samuel Sr. read
Taken at pick 82 in 2021, he returned +111.9 over what that slot usually gives you. Trust the board when it screams.
WR is your money position
5 WR picks returned 2.31× what their draft cost predicts. Keep buying there.
DEF is your blind spot
2 DEF picks returned 45% of the production their slots predict. Spend less capital there or buy it later.
Late-round sniper
Rounds 10+ returned +42 over expectation. The dart throws are landing.
DeAndre Hopkins still hurts
Pick 15 in 2021 came in −19.3 under the slot.
Return on draft capital
Where you hit, where you miss
QB
2.29×
2 picks · 50% beat slot
RB
1.90×
3 picks · 100% beat slot
WR
2.31×
5 picks · 60% beat slot
TE
1.26×
3 picks · 33% beat slot
K
2.10×
1 picks · 100% beat slot
DEF
0.45×
2 picks · 0% beat slot
Early (R1–4)
+101
4 picks · 75% hit
Mid (R5–9)
+193
5 picks · 80% hit
Late (R10+)
+42
7 picks · 29% hit
Signature steals
The picks that won
WR+112
Deebo Samuel Sr.
2021 · Rd 7 · pick 82 · 130.4 useful vs 18.5 expected
QB+70
Josh Allen
2021 · Rd 3 · pick 34 · 110.0 useful vs 39.7 expected
WR+68
Jaylen Waddle
2021 · Rd 9 · pick 106 · 80.4 useful vs 12.1 expected
The ones that haunt
The picks that didn't
WR−19
DeAndre Hopkins
2021 · Rd 2 · pick 15 · 34.2 useful vs 53.5 expected
WR−17
Kenny Golladay
2021 · Rd 8 · pick 87 · 0.0 useful vs 16.9 expected
TE−9
Irv Smith Jr.
2021 · Rd 11 · pick 130 · 0.0 useful vs 8.8 expected
02
The room
Prior draft boards
Reopen any draft and see how the room came together, pick by pick. Colors by position; the number is value over slot.
1.01-28
Justin Jefferson
oren
1.02+14
Ja'Marr Chase
Coby
1.03-9
Travis Kelce
evan
1.04+91
Christian McCaffrey
Max
1.05+44
Tyreek Hill
dylan
1.06-17
Austin Ekeler
Zach
1.07-9
Bijan Robinson
jonah
1.08+30
Stefon Diggs
Ethan
1.09-50
Nick Chubb
Tyler
1.10+2
Saquon Barkley
Aidan
1.11-3
Derrick Henry
Lewis
1.12-47
CeeDee Lamb
Spencer
2.01-37
Cooper Kupp
Spencer
2.02+52
A.J. Brown
Lewis
2.03-13
Garrett Wilson
Aidan
2.04-5
Tony Pollard
Tyler
2.05-12
Davante Adams
Ethan
2.06+1
Josh Jacobs
jonah
2.07+47
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Zach
2.08-6
Jaylen Waddle
dylan
2.09-33
Travis Etienne Jr.
Max
2.10-17
DeVonta Smith
evan
2.11+3
Chris Olave
Coby
2.12+4
Joe Mixon
oren
3.01-44
Najee Harris
oren
3.02-21
Calvin Ridley
Coby
3.03-20
Tee Higgins
evan
3.04+11
DK Metcalf
Max
3.05-9
Patrick Mahomes
dylan
3.06+30
Jalen Hurts
Zach
3.07+3
Amari Cooper
jonah
3.08+13
Josh Allen
Ethan
3.09+83
Keenan Allen
Tyler
3.10+50
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Aidan
3.11+31
Jahmyr Gibbs
Lewis
3.12-19
Aaron Jones Sr.
Spencer
4.01-30
Rhamondre Stevenson
Spencer
4.02+8
Mark Andrews
Lewis
4.03+35
Lamar Jackson
Aidan
4.04+11
Justin Fields
Tyler
4.05-31
Dameon Pierce
Ethan
4.06+5
Tyler Lockett
jonah
4.07+21
Breece Hall
Zach
4.08-21
Miles Sanders
dylan
4.09+6
Kenneth Walker III
Max
4.10-22
Alexander Mattison
evan
4.11-17
Joe Burrow
Coby
4.12+14
Justin Herbert
oren
5.01-4
Terry McLaurin
oren
5.02+15
T.J. Hockenson
Coby
5.03-3
James Conner
evan
5.04+4
Brandon Aiyuk
Max
5.05-27
J.K. Dobbins
dylan
5.06-5
Jonathan Taylor
Zach
5.07+84
DJ Moore
jonah
5.08-2
Darren Waller
Ethan
5.09+36
DeAndre Hopkins
Tyler
5.10-10
Diontae Johnson
Aidan
5.11-9
Drake London
Lewis
5.12-18
Chris Godwin Jr.
Spencer
6.01+26
Alvin Kamara
Spencer
6.02+22
D'Andre Swift
Lewis
6.03+41
James Cook III
Aidan
6.04-2
Christian Watson
Tyler
6.05-16
Javonte Williams
Ethan
6.06+38
George Kittle
jonah
6.07+6
Christian Kirk
Zach
6.08+48
Michael Pittman Jr.
dylan
6.09-17
Trevor Lawrence
Max
6.10+64
Mike Evans
evan
6.11-11
Rachaad White
Coby
6.12-13
Dallas Goedert
oren
7.01+7
George Pickens
oren
7.02+32
David Montgomery
Coby
7.03-21
Jerry Jeudy
evan
7.04-20
Cam Akers
Max
7.05-4
Mike Williams
dylan
7.06-19
Dalvin Cook
Zach
7.07-19
Khalil Herbert
jonah
7.08-12
Hollywood Brown
Ethan
7.09+30
Isiah Pacheco
Tyler
7.10+42
Evan Engram
Aidan
7.11-17
Michael Thomas
Lewis
7.12-13
Kyle Pitts Sr.
Spencer
8.01-6
Gabe Davis
Spencer
8.02-10
Deshaun Watson
Lewis
8.03-2
Courtland Sutton
Aidan
8.04-16
Jahan Dotson
Tyler
8.05+69
Raheem Mostert
Ethan
8.06+39
Jordan Addison
jonah
8.07-10
Pat Freiermuth
Zach
8.08+28
David Njoku
dylan
8.09-16
Jamaal Williams
Max
8.10-15
Daniel Jones
evan
8.11-15
Antonio Gibson
Coby
8.12-14
AJ Dillon
oren
9.01-14
Quentin Johnston
oren
9.02-14
Elijah Moore
Coby
9.03-10
Brandin Cooks
evan
9.04-14
Jerick McKinnon
Max
9.05+10
Brian Robinson Jr.
dylan
9.06+47
Adam Thielen
Zach
9.07+17
Tua Tagovailoa
jonah
9.08-13
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Ethan
9.09+9
Dalton Schultz
Tyler
9.10-12
Rashaad Penny
Aidan
9.11+14
Rashee Rice
Lewis
9.12-12
Odell Beckham Jr.
Spencer
10.01-12
Ezekiel Elliott
Spencer
10.02-12
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Lewis
10.03-12
Kadarius Toney
Aidan
10.04+8
49ers
Tyler
10.05+11
Zay Flowers
Ethan
10.06-11
Skyy Moore
jonah
10.07-11
Treylon Burks
Zach
10.08+43
Nico Collins
dylan
10.09-11
Zach Charbonnet
Max
10.10+73
Cowboys
evan
10.11-10
Samaje Perine
Coby
10.12-10
Jaylen Warren
oren
11.01-10
Elijah Mitchell
oren
11.02-3
Romeo Doubs
Coby
11.03+0
Anthony Richardson Sr.
evan
11.04-7
Tyler Higbee
Max
11.05+13
De'Von Achane
dylan
11.06-2
Eagles
Zach
11.07+34
Bills
jonah
11.08-9
D'Onta Foreman
Ethan
11.09-9
Damien Harris
Tyler
11.10-9
Michael Gallup
Aidan
11.11-9
Allen Lazard
Lewis
11.12-9
Darnell Mooney
Spencer
12.01-8
Dak Prescott
Spencer
12.02-9
Marvin Mims Jr.
Lewis
12.03+5
Chuba Hubbard
Aidan
12.04-9
Dalton Kincaid
Tyler
12.05-8
Tyler Allgeier
Ethan
12.06-8
Rashod Bateman
jonah
12.07+31
Justin Tucker
Zach
12.08-8
DJ Chark
dylan
12.09-6
Jakobi Meyers
Max
12.10-9
Jameson Williams
evan
12.11-9
Tank Bigsby
Coby
12.12-8
Jalin Hyatt
oren
13.01+33
Sam LaPorta
oren
13.02-8
Juwan Johnson
Coby
13.03-8
Devin Singletary
evan
13.04-8
Zay Jones
Max
13.05+10
Jets
dylan
13.06-8
Tyler Boyd
Zach
13.07-8
Kenny Gainwell
jonah
13.08-9
Van Jefferson
Ethan
13.09-8
Rashid Shaheed
Tyler
13.10-8
Daniel Carlson
Aidan
13.11-8
Aaron Rodgers
Lewis
13.12-8
Deuce Vaughn
Spencer
14.01-8
Kareem Hunt
Spencer
14.02+24
Evan McPherson
Lewis
14.03-8
Hunter Renfrow
Aidan
14.04-8
Geno Smith
Tyler
14.05-8
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Ethan
14.06+22
Younghoe Koo
jonah
14.07-7
Deon Jackson
Zach
14.08+23
Tyler Bass
dylan
14.09-7
Jonathan Mingo
Max
14.10+18
Harrison Butker
evan
14.11+42
Jake Elliott
Coby
14.12-7
Jason Myers
oren
15.01+26
Steelers
oren
15.02+4
Kirk Cousins
Coby
15.03-6
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
evan
15.04-6
John Metchie III
Max
15.05+8
Jayden Reed
dylan
15.06-6
Chig Okonkwo
Zach
15.07+3
Cole Kmet
jonah
15.08-6
Luke Musgrave
Ethan
15.09-1
Jason Sanders
Tyler
15.10-6
Curtis Samuel
Aidan
15.11-2
Bengals
Lewis
15.12-4
Patriots
Spencer
16.01-5
Robert Woods
Spencer
16.02-5
Michael Carter
Lewis
16.03+28
Ravens
Aidan
16.04-1
Roschon Johnson
Tyler
16.05+24
Nick Folk
Ethan
16.06+8
Brock Purdy
jonah
16.07-5
Rondale Moore
Zach
16.08-5
Wan'Dale Robinson
dylan
16.09-5
Saints
Max
16.10-5
Kendre Miller
evan
16.11-5
Jordan Love
Coby
16.12-4
Chris Evans
oren
03
Evidence
The year-end receipts
2021
Best drafters in the league
- 01LewisA+
- 02jonahA
- 03AidanA-
- 04TylerB+
- 05SpencerB
- 06dylanB-
- 07CobyC+
- 08ZachC
- 09orenC-
- 10evanD+
- 11EthanD
- 12MaxF
2021
League superlatives
The Oracle
Lewis
Best draft grade · A+ · +21.0/pick
The Sniper
Aidan
Best single pick over slot · Cooper Kupp +164.6
Bargain Hunter
dylan
Most value from rounds 10+ · +58
Boom or Bust
Aidan
Widest spread between hits and misses · σ 44
Steady Hand
Ethan
Most consistent picks · σ 12
Dead Money
Zach
Worst first-round return · −53
Draft day → final standings
Does the draft decide anything?
r = +0.57
Draft day decides this league. Based on 102 team-seasons.
Season by season
Best draft vs the champion's draft
| Season | Best draft | Finished | Champion's draft |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Aidan (A+) | 3rd | Coby (draft #2 of 12) |
| 2024 | Lewis (A+) | 5th | Ethan (draft #5 of 12) |
| 2023 | jonah (A+) | 6th | Max (draft #10 of 12) |
| 2022 | Spencer (A+) | 1st | Spencer (draft #1 of 12) |
| 2021 | Lewis (A+) | 2nd | Tyler (draft #4 of 12) |
| 2019 | Spencer (A+) | 1st | Spencer (draft #1 of 12) |
| 2018 | jonah (A+) | 1st | jonah (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2017 | joshua (A+) | 1st | joshua (draft #1 of 10) |
| 2016 | jonah (A+) | 2nd | Lewis (draft #7 of 10) |
04
Scouting archive
How this room drafts
Each cell is the position that manager most often takes in that round over the window (last 3 drafts when viewing last year).
| Manager | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 | R11 | R12 | R13 | R14 | R15 | R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach | RB | WR | RB | WR | RB | QB | WR | WR | TE | WR | RB | WR | K | RB | TE | QB |
| Spencer | RB | TE | WR | RB | RB | WR | QB | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | TE | DEF | K | RB |
| dylan | RB | RB | WR | WR | RB | TE | QB | WR | WR | WR | WR | RB | DEF | RB | K | RB |
| Ethan | RB | WR | QB | RB | TE | WR | RB | WR | WR | WR | WR | TE | RB | WR | WR | DEF |
| Aidan | RB | RB | WR | RB | WR | WR | TE | QB | WR | RB | RB | TE | K | DEF | WR | WR |
| oren | RB | WR | RB | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | WR | DEF | TE | RB | WR | RB | QB | K |
| Coby | WR | WR | WR | RB | RB | QB | RB | WR | RB | TE | WR | TE | WR | RB | K | DEF |
| Tyler | TE | RB | TE | WR | QB | WR | RB | WR | WR | DEF | RB | K | WR | WR | RB | WR |
| Max | WR | WR | RB | RB | TE | WR | WR | WR | QB | DEF | QB | RB | RB | WR | K | WR |
| Lewis | RB | WR | QB | WR | TE | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | TE | DEF | QB | K | DEF | TE |
| jonah | RB | RB | WR | WR | RB | WR | QB | TE | RB | RB | WR | DEF | WR | K | TE | QB |
| evan | RB | WR | WR | WR | RB | WR | TE | QB | WR | WR | RB | RB | DEF | K | QB | TE |
All drafts on record
League draft meta
| Position | Avg first off the board | Median pick | Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | pick 30 (≈ R3) | 85 | 21–192 |
| RB | pick 2 (≈ R1) | 76 | 1–192 |
| WR | pick 3 (≈ R1) | 81 | 1–191 |
| TE | pick 17 (≈ R2) | 90 | 3–192 |
| K | pick 125 (≈ R11) | 156 | 96–192 |
| DEF | pick 110 (≈ R10) | 144 | 84–191 |